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Monday, September 20, 2010

 

Football bounces our way

If you are among the foolhardy who bet pro football games, you must be wondering how to figure out what's going on. The Jets are terrible one week, very good the next, the Ravens the opposite, and the same can be said in one direction or the other for a lot of teams. Matchups always have something to do with it but the reality is that form is not a constant anymore, if it ever was, and you really have too take injuries, psychology, and the other soft factors into account to understand what is going on out there.

As bad as the Jets looked for their first 6 quarters of this young season, that's how good they looked for the second half yesterday. And that was after their all-world cornerback went down! For the first time, it really looked like Mark Sanchez will be a winning QB in this league. Let's remember, he is not blessed with the greatest receivers. Edwards can pull them down in traffic because of his height, but his patterns are only so-so; he rarely seems to be actually open. And he is their best receiver.

Anyway, that was a game they had to have, with a division rival. Besides, you can't start off 0-2 at home.

As for Big Blue, the overhyped Manning brother rivalry showed what even a casual fan knows - that the big brother is still much better than Manning the younger. Also, we should keep in mind that the Colts lost their opener to a very good team, and the Giants beat a weak team at home in their opener. I don't think the Giants are as bad as they looked last night, but they may find wins in their own division a bit hard to come by.
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When Dems get desperate, and believe me, they have been pressing the panic button, they typically turn out the ad hominem attacks and go blisteringly negative. Most obviously we have seen them go after O'Donnell in Delaware and Angle in Nevada, but this is really MoveOn.org strategy, so no one should be surprised. Keeping to the issues is not what they're about, it's strictly win at any cost, ends justify the means politics. And it's disconcerting when people who should know better, like Karl Rove, pile on to somehow boost their own credibility with the "intelligentsia."

No matter, I expect these attacks to backfire. Yes, I know negative campaigning usually works, but this is not a usual election year. The public has had it with politics as usual, and the purge of traditional GOP candidates shows that voters are willing to risk defeat to get an issue message across. In Delaware, most experts thought Mike Castle was a lock to flip the Senate seat, but GOP voters said in effect, "what's the point of putting a RINO in the Senate who won't come through for us on big votes, or can be bought off with an earmark or two?" I don't think anyone is for strict party discipline to fall in line on every vote, but if you don't stand up on health care or cap and tax, what's the point? So they went with a clearly flawed candidate who at least is a real conservative.

The pundits are all now conceding that the seat won't flip but I'm not so sure. Ms. O'Donnell trails by only 11 points according to the latest Rasmussen poll, and this is before the GOP has had a chance to show how badly flawed her opponent is too. I have a feeling this race will only tighten up, though there may not be enough time left to fully close the gap.

But if there isn't enough time for her, there really isn't enough time for all the Dems that are losing and losing badly. Momentum is still on the GOP's side. The latest Cook projection is for the GOP to flip at least 40 House seats giving them the majority. In the Senate Cook is looking for a 6-8 seat gain (it was 7-9 before the Delaware primary), not enough for a majority but enough to sustain filibusters. Now you know why the Obama people moved so quickly and carelessly to implement their left wing agenda. They are not getting any more of it through. Look for a lot of executive orders and recess appointments.

The appointment of Elizabeth Warren to an advisor position was an example. Since she could not get confirmed to the actual job she will do (creating the new Consumer Protection Agency), Obama found a way to employ her as such without giving her the title or enduring a confirmation hearing. Ugh. What happened to upholding the Constitution? Oh, I guess I shouldn't really worry my little head about such trivialities.
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In a race that's really going well, John Kasich is on his way to implementing a form of term limits with respect to Ohio's Governor Strickland. Quinnipac has Kasich ahead by 17, which is more than I can believe, but if it's close to being accurate, they can call in the dogs and piss on the fire, because that hunt's over. I met Mr. Kasich last spring and he is really ready for prime time. This was the wrong year for Strickland to attract an opponent of that caliber.

Though not identified with the Tea Party, Kasich has advanced arguments calling for reduced spending and job creation in Ohio since the beginning. In fact, the Tea Party to me is the not so crazy party. They are, in fact, the inheritors of the Ross Perot brand of independent budgetary and economic common sense. The difference is that this group is fighting mad, and not vacillating about their candidacies, the character flaw that killed the Perot candidacy.

As they say about tough playoff opponents, Angle, O Donnell, Rubio, and the other fiscal conservative Tea Partiers are going to be hard outs. It's time for the Murkowski's, Rove's and other establishment Republicans to either climb on board or just go away. But even if they don't, it's America, the First Amendment is still in place, (as are the others) and we'll find a way to make it right, the right way.

By the way, for the latest poll results, a great site is Real Clear Politics. I'll put the URL in the links.
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I saw Nicholas Peyton's Sextet at Birdland last week. Same personnel as last year and some of the same tunes (after the set, I asked Mr. Peyton who had written one of the tunes and as soon as he answered, James Black from New Orleans, I remembered that I had asked him that last year and laughed at myself for not remembering). However, the group is much tighter now, and really have become SO OUTSTANDING. If you get a chance to see them at another club, don't miss it.

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Last Monday, I bought 100 shares of Hartford Financial Preferred (HIG.PR.A) at
24.04. Then on Wednesday, we bought 200 shares of Peoples United (PBCT) at 13.11.

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