Sunday, May 05, 2013
Back to Blogging
After some 40 days or more without a post, we are back at it. Why the break? Literally too much traveling, work on tax returns, bridge, golf, etc. Somehow, I just never seemed to get in front of the computer for a solid hour or two of composing. Not that there wasn't plenty to write about, what with the Boston Marathon bombing, Syrian chemical weapons, North Korean saber rattling, Mets losing, Islanders making the playoffs, the Masters drama, etc., etc. The world continues to be an interesting place, if not always a rational one. Assuming my readers are as busy, you probably needed the break too. I just hope your income tax experience was less expensive than mine.
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This morning's news shows picked up the Benghazi story, which, reminiscent of Watergate, Iran Contra, and Whitewater, refuses to die. It is now admitted by everyone, even Democrats, that the Administration's talking points were a politically motivated lie. The news shows are in somewhat high dudgeon considering this is a Democratic scandal. Of course, they're pissed off because UN Rep. Rice came on all the shows and lied about what happened ( and what didn't happen) and the news shows (except Fox) accepted her explanation without question since she was an Obama Dem. Suddenly, Senate Republicans look better for having scuttled her nomination to head State.
Of course, she was just the Administration's designated dupe. She had no idea what happened, and apparently Hillary didn't either. It doesn't help matters for Dems that Hillary went before Congress saying she took full responsibility though she didn't know what was going on. That's not so presidential, if you ask me. My prediction is that Hillary will not run in 2016, regardless of her current poll numbers, which are probably about to take a serious hit.
But the big culprit in all this was Obama and his inner circle cronies, who were told that this was an Al Queda attack, but rejected that explanation (going so far as to line out the CIA report in favor of their ludicrous explanation that it was a spontaneous reaction to an offensive internet posting). Not only that, when Governor Romney had the correct explanation and the temerity to discuss it publicly, they blasted him for that action even while they promoted the lie! And the liberal media piled on! Recall that this was in the context of what was then a very close election campaign.
This was truly a disgraceful, even Nixonian, set of tactics by the Obama people. Though the Benghazi attack was not of the magnitude that should result in impeachment, it does follow a consistent pattern of a group that will do anything to preserve their power. But this is all too typical of the liberal Dems these days, and their "end justifies the means" approach, which starts from the assumption that only they are fit to make decisions for the rest of us. Hence the ACA (a clear disaster as it unfolds in spectacular disarray), the gun control bill overreach (instead of getting something helpful done), the continued stall on the Keystone Pipeline, etc. etc.
Even when they stumble into the correct policy (as Obama has continued virtually the entire Bush security and war on terror moves), they go through the motions of criticising them to appease the base. On Syria, Obama drew the line in the sand, then rubbed it out and presumably will mark another one. Meanwhile, the Israeli's do the dirty work. But why did Obama do that in the first place? What is there about chemical weapons use that is so much worse than what the Syrians have done using conventional weaponry? And why should we support a rebel force that is largely controlled by Hezbollah and Al Queda?
In short when the history books are written, this Administration will be considered an utter failure. I think history will be kinder to the Bush Administration, which achieved a kind of mediocrity that has been unattainable for our silver tongued but hapless incumbent.
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Counting Crows are back from their international tour and will be appearing in Manhattan at the Hammerstein Ballroom on June 27. I'm ready.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
While I haven't been blogging, I've been in Houston (not as much fun as last time), Washington twice, Albany, etc. etc. Heading for Washington again Thursday. I've also played four days of tournament bridge. But now I need some jazz and a lot more golf. Hopefully, May will bring that.
May 21st brings Jane Monheit to Birdland, and I think I will be there two times at least that week. Probably the 22nd and the 24th (Wednesday and Friday nights). If you are in the New York area, you should join me. Her current tour takes her to Jazz Alley in Seattle among other great venues (you can review them on her website).
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It's been over a month since my last post, but that doesn't mean we haven't been buying and selling stocks. On 3/26, we bought 9,500 shares of Oncosec Medical (ONCS), the zero buy that I have made an exception to the rule about not doing transactions below a dollar. We paid 21.45 cents and now we'll wait til this thing hits a dollar (we should only be so lucky) before the next transaction. On the same day, we bought 15 shares of the SPDR Gold ETF (GLD) despite the free fall in the metal. We paid 154.46. On 3/27, we sold 100 shares of Worthington (WOR) at 30.68, a nice gain from the 14.01 we paid for those shares on 7/21/03. On 3/28, we bought 100 shares of Loews (L) at 43.69, a value buy. On 4/1, we sold 300 shares of Genie Energy (GNE) at 9.36. We paid 9.09 for 200 on 10/31/11 and 7.27 for 100 on 11/21/11. On 4/2, we bought 300 shares of Great Lakes Docks and Dredging (GLDD) for the IRA at 6.88. Then on 4/3, we sold 100 shares of Conrad Industries (CNRD), one of our Tulane stocks, for 25.32. We paid 1.30 on 4/26/05. On the same day, we bought 50 shares of Cincinatti Bell preferred (CBB.PR.B) for 45.85. On 4/11, we sold 200 more shares of Genie (GNE) at 11.51, from the block of 11/21/11 when we paid 7.27. On 4/12, we sold 100 shares of Hartford Insurance Group (HIG) at 27.25, a small gain from the 26.13 we paid on 9/13/10. On the same day, we paid 20 for 100 shares of Gulf Island Fabrication (GIFI), another Tulane stock. On 4/18, we made two purchases, 100 shares of Newmont Gold (NEM) at 32.60 and 100 shares of San Diego Power preferred (SDO.PR.A) at 24.25. Full service broker warns that this preferred issue is callable at 24. On 4/19, we paid 31.36 for 100 shares of Stiefel Financial (SF), a value buy. We also bought 100 shares of Harsco (HSC) for the IRA at 21.44. On 4/22, we bought 20 TIPS (TIP) for the IRA at 121.74, and also bought 300 shares of struggling Alcoa (AA) at 8.11. Finally, on 4/25 we sold 200 shares of Boyd Gaming (BYD) at 10.80. This stock has had a nice rally and we paid a lot less for recently bought shares, but these were sold at a significant loss. We paid 38.27 for 100 on 12/7/07 and 17.47 for 100 on 4/16/08. On 5/3, we did a bunch of selling, since the market has run up prices so much. We sold 200 shares of IDT at 14.08 booking a loss from the 20.36 we paid on 8/29/11. We sold 100 Pulte Homes (PHM) for 22.33 versus a purchase price of 7.34 on 12/22/10. We sold 200 shares of Newpark Resources (NR), a Tulane stock, at 10.78. We paid 2.62 on 11/30/09. Finally, we sold 200 more shares of Boyd Gaming at 12.41. We paid 17.47 for 100 on 4/16/08 and 10.98 for 100 on 7/7/08.
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This morning's news shows picked up the Benghazi story, which, reminiscent of Watergate, Iran Contra, and Whitewater, refuses to die. It is now admitted by everyone, even Democrats, that the Administration's talking points were a politically motivated lie. The news shows are in somewhat high dudgeon considering this is a Democratic scandal. Of course, they're pissed off because UN Rep. Rice came on all the shows and lied about what happened ( and what didn't happen) and the news shows (except Fox) accepted her explanation without question since she was an Obama Dem. Suddenly, Senate Republicans look better for having scuttled her nomination to head State.
Of course, she was just the Administration's designated dupe. She had no idea what happened, and apparently Hillary didn't either. It doesn't help matters for Dems that Hillary went before Congress saying she took full responsibility though she didn't know what was going on. That's not so presidential, if you ask me. My prediction is that Hillary will not run in 2016, regardless of her current poll numbers, which are probably about to take a serious hit.
But the big culprit in all this was Obama and his inner circle cronies, who were told that this was an Al Queda attack, but rejected that explanation (going so far as to line out the CIA report in favor of their ludicrous explanation that it was a spontaneous reaction to an offensive internet posting). Not only that, when Governor Romney had the correct explanation and the temerity to discuss it publicly, they blasted him for that action even while they promoted the lie! And the liberal media piled on! Recall that this was in the context of what was then a very close election campaign.
This was truly a disgraceful, even Nixonian, set of tactics by the Obama people. Though the Benghazi attack was not of the magnitude that should result in impeachment, it does follow a consistent pattern of a group that will do anything to preserve their power. But this is all too typical of the liberal Dems these days, and their "end justifies the means" approach, which starts from the assumption that only they are fit to make decisions for the rest of us. Hence the ACA (a clear disaster as it unfolds in spectacular disarray), the gun control bill overreach (instead of getting something helpful done), the continued stall on the Keystone Pipeline, etc. etc.
Even when they stumble into the correct policy (as Obama has continued virtually the entire Bush security and war on terror moves), they go through the motions of criticising them to appease the base. On Syria, Obama drew the line in the sand, then rubbed it out and presumably will mark another one. Meanwhile, the Israeli's do the dirty work. But why did Obama do that in the first place? What is there about chemical weapons use that is so much worse than what the Syrians have done using conventional weaponry? And why should we support a rebel force that is largely controlled by Hezbollah and Al Queda?
In short when the history books are written, this Administration will be considered an utter failure. I think history will be kinder to the Bush Administration, which achieved a kind of mediocrity that has been unattainable for our silver tongued but hapless incumbent.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Counting Crows are back from their international tour and will be appearing in Manhattan at the Hammerstein Ballroom on June 27. I'm ready.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
While I haven't been blogging, I've been in Houston (not as much fun as last time), Washington twice, Albany, etc. etc. Heading for Washington again Thursday. I've also played four days of tournament bridge. But now I need some jazz and a lot more golf. Hopefully, May will bring that.
May 21st brings Jane Monheit to Birdland, and I think I will be there two times at least that week. Probably the 22nd and the 24th (Wednesday and Friday nights). If you are in the New York area, you should join me. Her current tour takes her to Jazz Alley in Seattle among other great venues (you can review them on her website).
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
It's been over a month since my last post, but that doesn't mean we haven't been buying and selling stocks. On 3/26, we bought 9,500 shares of Oncosec Medical (ONCS), the zero buy that I have made an exception to the rule about not doing transactions below a dollar. We paid 21.45 cents and now we'll wait til this thing hits a dollar (we should only be so lucky) before the next transaction. On the same day, we bought 15 shares of the SPDR Gold ETF (GLD) despite the free fall in the metal. We paid 154.46. On 3/27, we sold 100 shares of Worthington (WOR) at 30.68, a nice gain from the 14.01 we paid for those shares on 7/21/03. On 3/28, we bought 100 shares of Loews (L) at 43.69, a value buy. On 4/1, we sold 300 shares of Genie Energy (GNE) at 9.36. We paid 9.09 for 200 on 10/31/11 and 7.27 for 100 on 11/21/11. On 4/2, we bought 300 shares of Great Lakes Docks and Dredging (GLDD) for the IRA at 6.88. Then on 4/3, we sold 100 shares of Conrad Industries (CNRD), one of our Tulane stocks, for 25.32. We paid 1.30 on 4/26/05. On the same day, we bought 50 shares of Cincinatti Bell preferred (CBB.PR.B) for 45.85. On 4/11, we sold 200 more shares of Genie (GNE) at 11.51, from the block of 11/21/11 when we paid 7.27. On 4/12, we sold 100 shares of Hartford Insurance Group (HIG) at 27.25, a small gain from the 26.13 we paid on 9/13/10. On the same day, we paid 20 for 100 shares of Gulf Island Fabrication (GIFI), another Tulane stock. On 4/18, we made two purchases, 100 shares of Newmont Gold (NEM) at 32.60 and 100 shares of San Diego Power preferred (SDO.PR.A) at 24.25. Full service broker warns that this preferred issue is callable at 24. On 4/19, we paid 31.36 for 100 shares of Stiefel Financial (SF), a value buy. We also bought 100 shares of Harsco (HSC) for the IRA at 21.44. On 4/22, we bought 20 TIPS (TIP) for the IRA at 121.74, and also bought 300 shares of struggling Alcoa (AA) at 8.11. Finally, on 4/25 we sold 200 shares of Boyd Gaming (BYD) at 10.80. This stock has had a nice rally and we paid a lot less for recently bought shares, but these were sold at a significant loss. We paid 38.27 for 100 on 12/7/07 and 17.47 for 100 on 4/16/08. On 5/3, we did a bunch of selling, since the market has run up prices so much. We sold 200 shares of IDT at 14.08 booking a loss from the 20.36 we paid on 8/29/11. We sold 100 Pulte Homes (PHM) for 22.33 versus a purchase price of 7.34 on 12/22/10. We sold 200 shares of Newpark Resources (NR), a Tulane stock, at 10.78. We paid 2.62 on 11/30/09. Finally, we sold 200 more shares of Boyd Gaming at 12.41. We paid 17.47 for 100 on 4/16/08 and 10.98 for 100 on 7/7/08.
Thursday, March 21, 2013
The O in Israel and the Middle East
President Obama visited Israel this week, his first stop on his Middle East barnstorming tour, and did what he could to thaw out his frosty relationship with Israeli leader Bibi Netanyahu. He paid special attention to his advisors' talking points, making sure to emphasize the Jews' historical (biblical) birthright to the land and visiting Zionist monuments. From Israel, he proceeded to occupied Palestine where he tried to assuage the locals by saying that "Palestinians deserve to have a state." So, it's not just here that the "O" wants to have his cake and eat it too. Don't take it personally.
It would have been something to be a fly on the wall when Netanyahu huddled with Deputy PM and sometimes rival Ehud Barak to do a post mortem on the American President's drop-in. Amazingly, your crack redwavemusings investigative reporting team has obtained (exclusively, I might add) a transcript of their candid conversation, which we reprint here:
BN: I thought he would never leave. That man can talk a blue streak.
EB: Yeah, he's some sweet talker, like a big piece of halvah!
BN: At least he made an effort this time. When I went to the states, he seemed to go out of his way to make me mad. I finally said, "I didn't come here to be insulted." So he says, "that's what you think!" Then he calls me an upstart! (sorry, Marx Brothers fans)
EB: Some nerve.
BN: I'm thinking who is this young semi-schv...
EB: Watch it, Bi Bi!
BN:-schmo telling me how to run my freaking country? I don't tell Americans how to play basketball.
EB: Hold on there, we sorta do. Remember, before Bill Russell and Lenny Wilkens, there was Red Auerbach and Red Holzman, not to mention Joe Lapchik and Al McGuire.
BN: Joe Lapchick and Al McGuire?
EB: I asked you not to mention Al McGuire
BN: Al McGuire wasn't Jewish, he was Irish!
EB :Funny, he didn't look Irish
BN: Anyway, now he wants to give those idiot Palestinians a state. Can you imagine? They couldn't run a decent size camel ranch. How are they ever going to manage a state?
EB: I don't know, but it may not be all bad. Maybe once they have their own place, they'll stop coming here. And it's a pain in the tuchus already to occupy the territories. Enough! You want to be like the idiot Americans, stuck in Afghanistan?
BN: Oh God, even a worse place than the desert here.
EB: So maybe we can figure out a good way to make this happen.
BN: And if they start up again, we can re-occupy them if we have to. It will be good practice for when we have to circumcise the Persians.
EB: Good plan.
BN: You want to hear a good one?
EB: Sure
BN: Obama and I made a bet. He showed me his NCAA Tournament bracket, so I did one and I bet him mine would come out better than his.
EB: What stakes?
BN: If he wins, we have to show the Americans how we fixed that lousy missile defense system they gave us so that it actually works. Suddenly, they're all worried about the North Koreans and that chubby peckerhead with all the threats and stuff.
EB: And what if you win?
BN: He has to visit Iran and personally give Khameni a swift kick in the tuchus. No, really.
EB: I wonder if he knows how insulted those camel breaths get when you show them the bottom of your shoes!
BN: Heh heh.
EB: Well, I could use a belt, let me tell you. Is it 5 o'clock yet?
BN: Somewhere.
EB and BN (together): L'Chaim
I ask my readers, please don't send this transcript to Julian Assange.
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Speaking of the NCAA's, I didn't bother with a bracket. This looks like the kind of year where someone could come out of nowhere to win. The smart money says the best teams are Louisville, Kansas, Indiana, but I think this could be the year of Miami, meaning both the University of, as well as the Heat. So far, what I know is that the Big Five Champion LaSalle, whom we saw at the Palestra a month ago, won its play-in game.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Wall Street Journal really had it right about Andrew Cuomo in today's editorial. For all the non-stop blather about establishing a business friendly environment in New York, things have never been worse for business here, and the ever increasing taxes and minimum wage in the budget proves the point. With politicians, what they do is so much more indicative than anything they say. Since Republicans are an endangered species hereabouts, there is no relief in sight, I'm afraid.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Meanwhile, the Cyprus bank crisis, which has been further complicated since the Russians use it as a tax haven (the way we use Guernsey and the Caymans), is indicative of the fact that the Euro crisis is far from over, and that the Germans have about had it with rescuing everyone. The shocking proposal to put the snatch on depositors' money was less shocking than the unanimous vote by the Cyprus legislature to defy the EU's imposed solution.
Lest you think it can't happen here, consider that the Fed's interminable low interest rate campaign is effectively a confiscation of our depositors' interest income. We are just a bit more subtle than the Germans, but no less willing to make savers pay for profligate spending by governments and others.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
By the way, if you get a chance, catch the replay of ventriloquist/comedian Jeff Dunham on CMT. It is just a scream and definitely worth wading through all the commercials.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The Fed induced stock rally carries on virtually unabated. Bull markets climb a wall of worry and this one is typical. We've been taking profits, and will pay dearly on April 15, 2014, but that's life in the USA. On 3/13, we bought 50 shares of AstraZeneca (AZN), a somewhat beleaguered drug stock with just about nothing in the pipeline. In short, a perfect time to buy with the stock down to 45.67. On 3/14, we bought 200 shares of the Sabra Health Care REIT (SBRP), a new issue recommended by Full Service Broker. We needed some new preferred (and similar acting) names and this seems like a good one. The REIT will assemble a portfolio of health related real properties like nursing homes. We paid 25. On 3/18, we sold 50 shares of Teleflex (TFX), a long time favorite that was trading in the ozone. We got 81.19 for shares purchased on 6/16/06 for 51.20. On 3/19, we sold 100 shares of Bristow Group (BRS) for 61.77. Bristow is another one of our Tulane portfolio winners. We paid 29.34 for these shares on 8/16/04. Yesterday, we switched back to the buy side, paying 7.18 per share for 300 shares of Gencor (GENC) to put into the IRA.
Disclaimer time: Neither redwavemusings nor its author are investment advisors. The recording of these transactions is not to be construed as a recommendation of any security or action, and those mentioned here may be unsuitable for anyone else.
It would have been something to be a fly on the wall when Netanyahu huddled with Deputy PM and sometimes rival Ehud Barak to do a post mortem on the American President's drop-in. Amazingly, your crack redwavemusings investigative reporting team has obtained (exclusively, I might add) a transcript of their candid conversation, which we reprint here:
BN: I thought he would never leave. That man can talk a blue streak.
EB: Yeah, he's some sweet talker, like a big piece of halvah!
BN: At least he made an effort this time. When I went to the states, he seemed to go out of his way to make me mad. I finally said, "I didn't come here to be insulted." So he says, "that's what you think!" Then he calls me an upstart! (sorry, Marx Brothers fans)
EB: Some nerve.
BN: I'm thinking who is this young semi-schv...
EB: Watch it, Bi Bi!
BN:-schmo telling me how to run my freaking country? I don't tell Americans how to play basketball.
EB: Hold on there, we sorta do. Remember, before Bill Russell and Lenny Wilkens, there was Red Auerbach and Red Holzman, not to mention Joe Lapchik and Al McGuire.
BN: Joe Lapchick and Al McGuire?
EB: I asked you not to mention Al McGuire
BN: Al McGuire wasn't Jewish, he was Irish!
EB :Funny, he didn't look Irish
BN: Anyway, now he wants to give those idiot Palestinians a state. Can you imagine? They couldn't run a decent size camel ranch. How are they ever going to manage a state?
EB: I don't know, but it may not be all bad. Maybe once they have their own place, they'll stop coming here. And it's a pain in the tuchus already to occupy the territories. Enough! You want to be like the idiot Americans, stuck in Afghanistan?
BN: Oh God, even a worse place than the desert here.
EB: So maybe we can figure out a good way to make this happen.
BN: And if they start up again, we can re-occupy them if we have to. It will be good practice for when we have to circumcise the Persians.
EB: Good plan.
BN: You want to hear a good one?
EB: Sure
BN: Obama and I made a bet. He showed me his NCAA Tournament bracket, so I did one and I bet him mine would come out better than his.
EB: What stakes?
BN: If he wins, we have to show the Americans how we fixed that lousy missile defense system they gave us so that it actually works. Suddenly, they're all worried about the North Koreans and that chubby peckerhead with all the threats and stuff.
EB: And what if you win?
BN: He has to visit Iran and personally give Khameni a swift kick in the tuchus. No, really.
EB: I wonder if he knows how insulted those camel breaths get when you show them the bottom of your shoes!
BN: Heh heh.
EB: Well, I could use a belt, let me tell you. Is it 5 o'clock yet?
BN: Somewhere.
EB and BN (together): L'Chaim
I ask my readers, please don't send this transcript to Julian Assange.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Speaking of the NCAA's, I didn't bother with a bracket. This looks like the kind of year where someone could come out of nowhere to win. The smart money says the best teams are Louisville, Kansas, Indiana, but I think this could be the year of Miami, meaning both the University of, as well as the Heat. So far, what I know is that the Big Five Champion LaSalle, whom we saw at the Palestra a month ago, won its play-in game.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Wall Street Journal really had it right about Andrew Cuomo in today's editorial. For all the non-stop blather about establishing a business friendly environment in New York, things have never been worse for business here, and the ever increasing taxes and minimum wage in the budget proves the point. With politicians, what they do is so much more indicative than anything they say. Since Republicans are an endangered species hereabouts, there is no relief in sight, I'm afraid.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Meanwhile, the Cyprus bank crisis, which has been further complicated since the Russians use it as a tax haven (the way we use Guernsey and the Caymans), is indicative of the fact that the Euro crisis is far from over, and that the Germans have about had it with rescuing everyone. The shocking proposal to put the snatch on depositors' money was less shocking than the unanimous vote by the Cyprus legislature to defy the EU's imposed solution.
Lest you think it can't happen here, consider that the Fed's interminable low interest rate campaign is effectively a confiscation of our depositors' interest income. We are just a bit more subtle than the Germans, but no less willing to make savers pay for profligate spending by governments and others.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
By the way, if you get a chance, catch the replay of ventriloquist/comedian Jeff Dunham on CMT. It is just a scream and definitely worth wading through all the commercials.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The Fed induced stock rally carries on virtually unabated. Bull markets climb a wall of worry and this one is typical. We've been taking profits, and will pay dearly on April 15, 2014, but that's life in the USA. On 3/13, we bought 50 shares of AstraZeneca (AZN), a somewhat beleaguered drug stock with just about nothing in the pipeline. In short, a perfect time to buy with the stock down to 45.67. On 3/14, we bought 200 shares of the Sabra Health Care REIT (SBRP), a new issue recommended by Full Service Broker. We needed some new preferred (and similar acting) names and this seems like a good one. The REIT will assemble a portfolio of health related real properties like nursing homes. We paid 25. On 3/18, we sold 50 shares of Teleflex (TFX), a long time favorite that was trading in the ozone. We got 81.19 for shares purchased on 6/16/06 for 51.20. On 3/19, we sold 100 shares of Bristow Group (BRS) for 61.77. Bristow is another one of our Tulane portfolio winners. We paid 29.34 for these shares on 8/16/04. Yesterday, we switched back to the buy side, paying 7.18 per share for 300 shares of Gencor (GENC) to put into the IRA.
Disclaimer time: Neither redwavemusings nor its author are investment advisors. The recording of these transactions is not to be construed as a recommendation of any security or action, and those mentioned here may be unsuitable for anyone else.
Tuesday, March 12, 2013
Items Grab Bag
Item - The Republican Senate Leader in New York, Dean Skelos, reversed course, determining that some increase in the minimum wage would be OK after all. So we now have evidence that New York Republicans cave even faster than Senate Republicans in Washington do. That said, the cave is still not enough for Dems like Assembly Speaker Shelly Silver. He and Governor Cuomo are demanding not just a big increase in the minimum wage, but also the indexing of that minimum to inflation. What a terrible idea - when we assume a need to keep up with inflation, we raise inflation expectations and ultimately accelerate inflation itself. No doubt the victims of this lousy policy will again be youth workers, especially the less educated who will be laid off in droves.
Item: North Korea's dictator threatens U.S. with nuclear weaponry and renounces the truce that ended the Korean War. This is what happens when you give a juvenile delinquent the keys to the country.
Venezuela's Chavez dies from cancer complications setting off mourning among the country's peasantry and U.S. liberal sympathizers. My grandfather taught me, if you can't say anything good about the dead, don't say anything at all. So I won't. But I can still "dis" Sean Penn and Robert Kennedy Junior, can't I?
Item: 3,300 dead pigs were found in a river in China that is an important source of drinking water. No wonder a favorite dish in that environmental nightmare of a country is twice cooked pork. But I'm pretty sure twice would not be enough for most of us. Here we have General Electric agreeing to a fourth Hudson River dredging project to remove some of the PCB's they dumped there decades ago. I wonder how many times you'd have to cook them before they were safe.
Item: Old teams suffer injuries as night follows day. The aging and aged Knicks can't keep their stars on the court, the Yankees have had a difficult time keeping their inevitable Hall of Famers on the field. In the pre-steriod era, we expected athletes to slow down and glide to retirement by 35 or so. Now with high salaries motivating athletes to stay in shape, and with steroids and PED's speeding their healing and return to the field and the court, it is common for pros to soldier on to 40 or even later. But I am not sure this is really good for anyone - the teams, the fans or the players themselves.
Item: Cedar Walton wowed them at Birdland, but as often happens, it was one of his sidemen, alto sax veteran Vincent Herring who stole the show. We have seen Herring many times at Birdland playing with greats like George Cables, Victor Lewis, Nicholas Peyton and Tom Harrell. He is a regular at all of New York's top jazz clubs - the current sax player of choice in a city where Eric Alexander, Joe Lovano, Lew Tabackin and other great players are based. This is why, when selecting a show to see, go past the headliner and look to see which sidemen are playing also.
I sat at the bar for the show, next to a German visitor in town on business. He told me he was anxious to see New York's Birdland since he goes to a club named Birdland in Hamburg. Of course, he doesn't often see the likes of Walton and Herring there. Needless to say, he was suitably impressed.
Item: The Mets are shaping up pretty much the way we expected - lots of quality starting pitching and lots of questions in the outfield. And way too left-handed at the plate - we are going to see a lot of lefties out of opposing bullpens. It does look like if Jordany Valdespin can get the hang of centerfield, he may see quite a bit of starts there, which would send Kirk Nieuwenhuis to Las Vegas for a while.
But they have more to worry about in Las Vegas than a triple A team that strikes out a lot. Casinos are sprouting everywhere. And on-line gambling too. Of course, New York politicians want to restrict the casinos to the economically challenged upstate counties, and not to put them in New York City, where they might actually do some business. I think it's all a conspiracy to keep me from dominating the poker tournament circuit.
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The stock market is setting records every day and that makes any self respecting investor/trader nervous. Remember, the late Dr. Martin Zweig was perpetually worried and nervous. Fortunately, like Star Trek's Mr. Spock, we have a formula that keeps any such emotions at bay. The public is characteristically made up of trend followers who always get it wrong, getting to rallies too late and then being set up for the market's inevitable slump. Our formula takes us in the opposite direction.
On Feb 25, we sold 100 shares of SEI Corp. (SEIC) at 28.14. We paid 14.81 on 5/3/04. On 2/26, we bought 100 shares of San Diego Power preferred (SDO.PR.A) at 24.69. On 3/1, we bought 100 shares of Devon Energy (DVN) at 53.87. This was a value buy since the stock is depressed due to the surplus production of natural gas. On 3/4, we sold 100 shares of Conrad Industries (CNRD) at 22.64. We paid 1.30 0n 4/26/05, a triumph for our formula and the vaunted Tulane portfolio. On 3/5, we sold 400 shares of the rebounding USA Trucking (USAK) for 5.03, taking a small loss from the 5.73 we paid on 1/8/01. On 3/6, we sold 200 shares of Marine Max (HZO) for 13.76 that we bought on 11/10/08 for 1.54. During the crisis, they priced HZO as if no one would ever buy another boat. On 3/7, we sold 100 shares of Watts Water (WTS) at 48.96. We paid 31.61 on 6/19/06. Finally, on 3/11, we sold 100 shares of News Corp (NWSA) for 30.50. We paid 18.04 on 3/18/05. News Corp will be splitting into two companies, separating its newspaper business from its other media businesses.
Item: North Korea's dictator threatens U.S. with nuclear weaponry and renounces the truce that ended the Korean War. This is what happens when you give a juvenile delinquent the keys to the country.
Venezuela's Chavez dies from cancer complications setting off mourning among the country's peasantry and U.S. liberal sympathizers. My grandfather taught me, if you can't say anything good about the dead, don't say anything at all. So I won't. But I can still "dis" Sean Penn and Robert Kennedy Junior, can't I?
Item: 3,300 dead pigs were found in a river in China that is an important source of drinking water. No wonder a favorite dish in that environmental nightmare of a country is twice cooked pork. But I'm pretty sure twice would not be enough for most of us. Here we have General Electric agreeing to a fourth Hudson River dredging project to remove some of the PCB's they dumped there decades ago. I wonder how many times you'd have to cook them before they were safe.
Item: Old teams suffer injuries as night follows day. The aging and aged Knicks can't keep their stars on the court, the Yankees have had a difficult time keeping their inevitable Hall of Famers on the field. In the pre-steriod era, we expected athletes to slow down and glide to retirement by 35 or so. Now with high salaries motivating athletes to stay in shape, and with steroids and PED's speeding their healing and return to the field and the court, it is common for pros to soldier on to 40 or even later. But I am not sure this is really good for anyone - the teams, the fans or the players themselves.
Item: Cedar Walton wowed them at Birdland, but as often happens, it was one of his sidemen, alto sax veteran Vincent Herring who stole the show. We have seen Herring many times at Birdland playing with greats like George Cables, Victor Lewis, Nicholas Peyton and Tom Harrell. He is a regular at all of New York's top jazz clubs - the current sax player of choice in a city where Eric Alexander, Joe Lovano, Lew Tabackin and other great players are based. This is why, when selecting a show to see, go past the headliner and look to see which sidemen are playing also.
I sat at the bar for the show, next to a German visitor in town on business. He told me he was anxious to see New York's Birdland since he goes to a club named Birdland in Hamburg. Of course, he doesn't often see the likes of Walton and Herring there. Needless to say, he was suitably impressed.
Item: The Mets are shaping up pretty much the way we expected - lots of quality starting pitching and lots of questions in the outfield. And way too left-handed at the plate - we are going to see a lot of lefties out of opposing bullpens. It does look like if Jordany Valdespin can get the hang of centerfield, he may see quite a bit of starts there, which would send Kirk Nieuwenhuis to Las Vegas for a while.
But they have more to worry about in Las Vegas than a triple A team that strikes out a lot. Casinos are sprouting everywhere. And on-line gambling too. Of course, New York politicians want to restrict the casinos to the economically challenged upstate counties, and not to put them in New York City, where they might actually do some business. I think it's all a conspiracy to keep me from dominating the poker tournament circuit.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The stock market is setting records every day and that makes any self respecting investor/trader nervous. Remember, the late Dr. Martin Zweig was perpetually worried and nervous. Fortunately, like Star Trek's Mr. Spock, we have a formula that keeps any such emotions at bay. The public is characteristically made up of trend followers who always get it wrong, getting to rallies too late and then being set up for the market's inevitable slump. Our formula takes us in the opposite direction.
On Feb 25, we sold 100 shares of SEI Corp. (SEIC) at 28.14. We paid 14.81 on 5/3/04. On 2/26, we bought 100 shares of San Diego Power preferred (SDO.PR.A) at 24.69. On 3/1, we bought 100 shares of Devon Energy (DVN) at 53.87. This was a value buy since the stock is depressed due to the surplus production of natural gas. On 3/4, we sold 100 shares of Conrad Industries (CNRD) at 22.64. We paid 1.30 0n 4/26/05, a triumph for our formula and the vaunted Tulane portfolio. On 3/5, we sold 400 shares of the rebounding USA Trucking (USAK) for 5.03, taking a small loss from the 5.73 we paid on 1/8/01. On 3/6, we sold 200 shares of Marine Max (HZO) for 13.76 that we bought on 11/10/08 for 1.54. During the crisis, they priced HZO as if no one would ever buy another boat. On 3/7, we sold 100 shares of Watts Water (WTS) at 48.96. We paid 31.61 on 6/19/06. Finally, on 3/11, we sold 100 shares of News Corp (NWSA) for 30.50. We paid 18.04 on 3/18/05. News Corp will be splitting into two companies, separating its newspaper business from its other media businesses.
Monday, February 25, 2013
Washington D.C. - Sequester City
Where to begin? Clearly, the inmates have taken over this asylum. The panicked pleas of Dems about the dangers of the sequester are falling on deaf ears, and not only in the House of Representatives. The people by and large are ignoring the crisis of the moment, despite Obama's latest all-out, campaign style public relations effort. Maybe at some point, our President will actually get to work and do his job. The 50 some odd billion bucks to be sequestered in the remainder of this fiscal year (at an $85 billion annual rate) is a drop in the fiscal bucket. In fact, the increase in the budget due baseline to offset inflation is greater than the amount of sequester cuts! Only in Washington is that a cut.
Yet for the GOP, there is really no choice. Dems surpassed even their unbroken record for reneging on budget deals by stiffing the Repubs in the fiscal cliff settlement. In short, the only cuts you can get past the spendthrifts in blue are automatic ones. Look for the Republicans to pass a bill in the House allowing Dems to use some discretion in making the Defense Department's share of the cuts, but Dems will hold out for the same discretion for all agencies. Republicans are likely to give it to them too, but Dems don't really want to pass that either. They want the cuts to be as painful as possible, and then to blame the Republicans for not agreeing to more taxes. On Sunday, the Dems' irresponsibility finally seemed too much for even their close media friends to stomach, as the news magazines anchors actually took pains to pose some hard questions for the Administration shills. Republicans intend to resist any additional taxes on top of the fiscal cliff increase, and they should, though I would make an exception for the capital gains treatment hedge funds managers enjoy.
So the sequester looks like it is going to happen, and that's a good thing. It will not hurt the economy, and will help it in the long run. We need to cut this budget and this deficit. Then if we can get the Fed to normalize rates and do something to curb entitlement growth, we will start to revive our economic growth engine. Of course, the regulatory nightmare that Obama has unleashed on business (and which Harvard's Michael Porter recently attributed much of our economic malaise to) needs to be reined in too, but that is hoping for miracles, I'm afraid.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If the sequester was the only source of Washington hi-jinx, it would be enough for most C-Span junkies, but the reality is it's at least a three ring circus. PPACA has been a never ending source of atrocities. HHS continues to spout rules, a top down approach that has no chance to work. Proof of this failure can be seen in the Feds curtailment of the high risk "uninsurables" pools. Someone finally got the bright idea that the claims associated with this group will be actuarially unmanageable, something even a first year actuarial student could have told them if they had bothered to ask. Or, for that matter, any Governor or Comptroller of a community rating state like New York. This, the completely unrealistically low MediCare Advantage rates, and the high comedy surrounding governors' decisions on whether to take the Federal money for Medicaid expansion (knowing the rug will probably be pulled from under them in a few years) or not to expand Medicaid at all, proves what we said from the beginning: this was never about health insurance, since there really has been no insurance provided for decades. What carriers do today is administer bill paying, they don't really take risk. PPACA is not there to provide insurance either. It is a stalking horse for single payor, European style, government provided health care. And unless the apple cart of PPACA is upset soon, that's what we will get.
Beyond PPACA, there is also the hilarity of the minimum wage increase proposal. For as long as I can remember, Republicans have opposed the minimum wage on largely humanitarian grounds - it causes unemployment, especially among youth. Today, youth unemployment in this country is a staggering 23.4%. That's depression level stuff. At what point will Dems recognize that there is a connection? Answer is, it doesn't matter, minimum wage increases are a sop to their union buddies, and another position that sounds compassionate on its face while causing great damage in reality.
The comment we received after our last post, while thoughtful, takes the GOP to task for taking positions opposing such compassionate sounding policies. I would be the first to agree that conservatives' messaging has been unsuccessful in recent years (other than in 2010). But frankly, we have a much harder job. Would you rather dole out medicine or cookies? Make no mistake, conservatives believe they are providing medicine, in the form of policies that will work. When that loses elections so be it. The other nightmare is that in the last two cycles, at least half a dozen Senate candidates have come through the primary system under the Republican banner who were incompetent, gaffe prone, maybe even mean spirited. Some blame the Tea Party, but I think that view is myopic. Each situation has been different. Having said that, there should be changes made to the primary system, particularly in states that have so-called "open" primaries. I think that only party members should be eligible to vote in primaries. Otherwise, you get the kind of fiasco we had in Missouri where Dems actually spent money on ads to get their voters to come out and vote for Akin in the GOP primary! And we all know what happened to that candidacy.
So let's stipulate that conservative candidates need to polish their statements and stop saying dumb things. When the media badgers you to answer questions about social issues that should not be part of the campaign, don't answer! How hard is that? But the answer is not to mimic the other party's poor policy positions, and this is true on taxes, spending, immigration, health care and so on.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Well, I'm sorry for such a serious post. I really do want to lighten up, do a little more music, sports, and similar trivia. Speaking of music, the once Young, now Old, Rascals are reuniting for a couple of shows in the New York area. Now that would be fun. Also, pianist Cedar Walton is coming to Birdland next week, and I intend to make a visit there. And coming in May, Jane Monheit. Stay tuned for those dates.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On Feb 15, we bought 500 shares of Petroquest (PQ) at 4.47, a zero buy. The oil patch is slumping despite high gas prices, as the Street discounts much lower prices coming. On 2/19 we bought 20 shares of the TIP ETF (TIP) for 120.21. Then on 2/20 we sold 200 shares of Marine Max (HZO)for 13.94. We paid 1.54 on 11/10/08. Are 9 timers ever bad? On 2/21, we bought 300 shares of Alcoa (AA), one of the dogs in our kennel that has shown some signs of life. That was a value buy. Then on 2/22, we bought 600 more shares of Petroquest (PQ), now down to 4.01. You gotta believe!
Yet for the GOP, there is really no choice. Dems surpassed even their unbroken record for reneging on budget deals by stiffing the Repubs in the fiscal cliff settlement. In short, the only cuts you can get past the spendthrifts in blue are automatic ones. Look for the Republicans to pass a bill in the House allowing Dems to use some discretion in making the Defense Department's share of the cuts, but Dems will hold out for the same discretion for all agencies. Republicans are likely to give it to them too, but Dems don't really want to pass that either. They want the cuts to be as painful as possible, and then to blame the Republicans for not agreeing to more taxes. On Sunday, the Dems' irresponsibility finally seemed too much for even their close media friends to stomach, as the news magazines anchors actually took pains to pose some hard questions for the Administration shills. Republicans intend to resist any additional taxes on top of the fiscal cliff increase, and they should, though I would make an exception for the capital gains treatment hedge funds managers enjoy.
So the sequester looks like it is going to happen, and that's a good thing. It will not hurt the economy, and will help it in the long run. We need to cut this budget and this deficit. Then if we can get the Fed to normalize rates and do something to curb entitlement growth, we will start to revive our economic growth engine. Of course, the regulatory nightmare that Obama has unleashed on business (and which Harvard's Michael Porter recently attributed much of our economic malaise to) needs to be reined in too, but that is hoping for miracles, I'm afraid.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If the sequester was the only source of Washington hi-jinx, it would be enough for most C-Span junkies, but the reality is it's at least a three ring circus. PPACA has been a never ending source of atrocities. HHS continues to spout rules, a top down approach that has no chance to work. Proof of this failure can be seen in the Feds curtailment of the high risk "uninsurables" pools. Someone finally got the bright idea that the claims associated with this group will be actuarially unmanageable, something even a first year actuarial student could have told them if they had bothered to ask. Or, for that matter, any Governor or Comptroller of a community rating state like New York. This, the completely unrealistically low MediCare Advantage rates, and the high comedy surrounding governors' decisions on whether to take the Federal money for Medicaid expansion (knowing the rug will probably be pulled from under them in a few years) or not to expand Medicaid at all, proves what we said from the beginning: this was never about health insurance, since there really has been no insurance provided for decades. What carriers do today is administer bill paying, they don't really take risk. PPACA is not there to provide insurance either. It is a stalking horse for single payor, European style, government provided health care. And unless the apple cart of PPACA is upset soon, that's what we will get.
Beyond PPACA, there is also the hilarity of the minimum wage increase proposal. For as long as I can remember, Republicans have opposed the minimum wage on largely humanitarian grounds - it causes unemployment, especially among youth. Today, youth unemployment in this country is a staggering 23.4%. That's depression level stuff. At what point will Dems recognize that there is a connection? Answer is, it doesn't matter, minimum wage increases are a sop to their union buddies, and another position that sounds compassionate on its face while causing great damage in reality.
The comment we received after our last post, while thoughtful, takes the GOP to task for taking positions opposing such compassionate sounding policies. I would be the first to agree that conservatives' messaging has been unsuccessful in recent years (other than in 2010). But frankly, we have a much harder job. Would you rather dole out medicine or cookies? Make no mistake, conservatives believe they are providing medicine, in the form of policies that will work. When that loses elections so be it. The other nightmare is that in the last two cycles, at least half a dozen Senate candidates have come through the primary system under the Republican banner who were incompetent, gaffe prone, maybe even mean spirited. Some blame the Tea Party, but I think that view is myopic. Each situation has been different. Having said that, there should be changes made to the primary system, particularly in states that have so-called "open" primaries. I think that only party members should be eligible to vote in primaries. Otherwise, you get the kind of fiasco we had in Missouri where Dems actually spent money on ads to get their voters to come out and vote for Akin in the GOP primary! And we all know what happened to that candidacy.
So let's stipulate that conservative candidates need to polish their statements and stop saying dumb things. When the media badgers you to answer questions about social issues that should not be part of the campaign, don't answer! How hard is that? But the answer is not to mimic the other party's poor policy positions, and this is true on taxes, spending, immigration, health care and so on.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Well, I'm sorry for such a serious post. I really do want to lighten up, do a little more music, sports, and similar trivia. Speaking of music, the once Young, now Old, Rascals are reuniting for a couple of shows in the New York area. Now that would be fun. Also, pianist Cedar Walton is coming to Birdland next week, and I intend to make a visit there. And coming in May, Jane Monheit. Stay tuned for those dates.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On Feb 15, we bought 500 shares of Petroquest (PQ) at 4.47, a zero buy. The oil patch is slumping despite high gas prices, as the Street discounts much lower prices coming. On 2/19 we bought 20 shares of the TIP ETF (TIP) for 120.21. Then on 2/20 we sold 200 shares of Marine Max (HZO)for 13.94. We paid 1.54 on 11/10/08. Are 9 timers ever bad? On 2/21, we bought 300 shares of Alcoa (AA), one of the dogs in our kennel that has shown some signs of life. That was a value buy. Then on 2/22, we bought 600 more shares of Petroquest (PQ), now down to 4.01. You gotta believe!
Thursday, February 14, 2013
The State of the Union is... Precarious
The left wing agenda continued rolling out at the State of the Union address, with the President even reviving oldies but goodies like the minimum wage (a proven job loser). Expanding educational opportunities for four year olds really amounts to little more than throwing more money we don't have at Head Start, a program that "feels good" but provides little statistical evidence to justify the spending. As for immigration reform and gun control, the right proposals will attract bipartisan support, so you can be sure that Obama will push the envelope to whatever the point is where it would embarrass Republicans, which seems to be his only preoccupation lately. I heard the speech in Washington, whle having an after dinner wine at Johnnie's Half Shell, and an older couple (yes, I think even older than me) was clucking at proposal after proposal, saying "how could anyone be against that?" They would say this immediately before or after I would say, "well Republicans are not going for that," so it was pretty funny. On the pre-school proposal, I finally had enough and turned to the couple and said, "how are we going to pay for that?" They replied, reflexively, "tax the rich." When I pointed out that if the rich paid a 100% tax rate on income, it still could not fund the Obama programs, they had nothing to say.
Then, of course, there was the comic part of the show, wherein Obama took credit for our higher oil and gas revenues, while his Administration has opposed those industries' efforts every step of the way. And still not a word about the Keystone Pipeline, even though environmental objections have now been satisfied by its rerouting.
The Dems' strategy, now that they got their Clinton tax rate on the top 1%, is to paint a grossly exaggerated picture of the impact that sequester will have on the military, Washington employment, and the social safety net. Considering that the impact of this year's sequester will be $85 billion, or less than 10% of the annual DEFICIT, we know how false these characterizations are. The House should parse through the Obama proposals, and reject any of them that are not truly paid for (which is just about all of them). And they should refuse to budge on the sequester in the absence of serious efforts to start dealing with entitlements. Which means we will likely to be in sequester all year.
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On my way into the restaurant, I saw Karl Rove go out to make a cell phone call. It was celebrity night in an otherwise locked down city. But the weather was quite pleasant, and I walked from my hotel on Mass and 20th to dinner on North Capital. If you don't know D.C., that's close to a two mile hike, and helped work up an appetite. Washington is a good walking city, like New York, Chicago and Seattle.
In April, I am headed for a lengthy stay in Houston, and I hope to enjoy it as much as the last time. It's earthier than Austin, but there is lots of music in Houston too, and plenty of good spots at meal time.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This blog often commended Hillary Clinton during the last four years for providing the only discernible adult voice in the Administration. It's also true that State has long been unmanageable, no matter how capable its leader. The career bureaucrats in State have their own agenda and they follow that, often to the Secretary's frustration. The chances that the Secretary of State, whether his/her last name is Baker, Powell, Clinton or Kerry, will be co-opted by the bureaucrats are much greater than any possibility that they will truly set the path for the Department. It is no accident that Congressional conservatives have long had a hate / hate relationship with Foggy Bottom.
Yet, I was disappointed that Hillary ended her tenure on such a low note. Effectively, she took the low road of the smooth departure from her follow rival, the President, instead of pointing out how badly her own Department and the Administration had sandbagged her on Benghazi. Her feigned righteous indignation before the Congressional panel criticizing State's "performance" in that episode fooled no one. The media is only too happy to cover up all these Administration follies, but the second and the final drafts of history will tell a more honest tale of the bungling that allowed an Al Queda attack on US property to proceed virtually unopposed, resulting in the death of our Ambassador and three others.
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On 1/28, we bought 15 shares in the Gold ETF (GLD) at 160.23. On 2/1, we bought 200 shares of Peoples United (PBCT) for the IRA at 12.38. We also bought 100 shares of Raven Industries (RAVN) at 26.95, a zero buy. Then on 2/4, we bought 50 shares of Cincinatti Bell preferred (CBB.PR.B) at 47.50. 2/4 was also the day that Wells Fargo redeemed our 700 shares of its preferred at the pegged price of 25. That gave us an immaterial capital gain in the IRA, but we enjoyed many years of healthy dividends, as we do from all of our preferred issues. This provided more cash to work with above our 20% cash allocation target. On 2/5, we bought 100 shares of Gulf Island Fabrication (GIFI), one of our Tulane portfolio of companies, at 22.95, a value buy. On 2/7, we bought 9,000 shares of Onco Sec Medical (ONCS), a brand new name, for 0.228. This purchase violated our rule about buying stocks below a dollar, and we won't be adding shares any time soon because of that rule, but I just can't resist a really promising cancer story. Then on 2/11, we bought 100 shares of the SunTrust preferred (STI.PR.A) for the IRA at 24.37. I won't pay more than the par price for these preferreds, assuming some day they will all be redeemed at par, as in the Wells Fargo case. Today we bought 200 shares of Safeguard Scientifics (SFE) at 15.28.
Our numbers are all in for 2012. The total return for the musings portfolio was 13.2%, a solid year, since that figure includes commissions, dividends, everything. The yield is impacted by the near zero return on the 20% I keep in cash, and the low return on the 4% of the portfolio in a tax free municipal bond fund. So overall performance was pretty good on a risk adjusted basis - not easily attainable except in bull markets. Maybe I should give the Obama Administration a little more credit. Maybe they really are in favor of capitalism and good for private markets. Maybe the Obama policies, given a chance to really have an impact, could jump start our economy and keep the bull market going....Naaah!
Disclaimer time: Neither redwavemusings, nor its author, are investment advisors, and the transactions and securities reported here are not recommendations, and may not be suitable for any investor.
Then, of course, there was the comic part of the show, wherein Obama took credit for our higher oil and gas revenues, while his Administration has opposed those industries' efforts every step of the way. And still not a word about the Keystone Pipeline, even though environmental objections have now been satisfied by its rerouting.
The Dems' strategy, now that they got their Clinton tax rate on the top 1%, is to paint a grossly exaggerated picture of the impact that sequester will have on the military, Washington employment, and the social safety net. Considering that the impact of this year's sequester will be $85 billion, or less than 10% of the annual DEFICIT, we know how false these characterizations are. The House should parse through the Obama proposals, and reject any of them that are not truly paid for (which is just about all of them). And they should refuse to budge on the sequester in the absence of serious efforts to start dealing with entitlements. Which means we will likely to be in sequester all year.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On my way into the restaurant, I saw Karl Rove go out to make a cell phone call. It was celebrity night in an otherwise locked down city. But the weather was quite pleasant, and I walked from my hotel on Mass and 20th to dinner on North Capital. If you don't know D.C., that's close to a two mile hike, and helped work up an appetite. Washington is a good walking city, like New York, Chicago and Seattle.
In April, I am headed for a lengthy stay in Houston, and I hope to enjoy it as much as the last time. It's earthier than Austin, but there is lots of music in Houston too, and plenty of good spots at meal time.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This blog often commended Hillary Clinton during the last four years for providing the only discernible adult voice in the Administration. It's also true that State has long been unmanageable, no matter how capable its leader. The career bureaucrats in State have their own agenda and they follow that, often to the Secretary's frustration. The chances that the Secretary of State, whether his/her last name is Baker, Powell, Clinton or Kerry, will be co-opted by the bureaucrats are much greater than any possibility that they will truly set the path for the Department. It is no accident that Congressional conservatives have long had a hate / hate relationship with Foggy Bottom.
Yet, I was disappointed that Hillary ended her tenure on such a low note. Effectively, she took the low road of the smooth departure from her follow rival, the President, instead of pointing out how badly her own Department and the Administration had sandbagged her on Benghazi. Her feigned righteous indignation before the Congressional panel criticizing State's "performance" in that episode fooled no one. The media is only too happy to cover up all these Administration follies, but the second and the final drafts of history will tell a more honest tale of the bungling that allowed an Al Queda attack on US property to proceed virtually unopposed, resulting in the death of our Ambassador and three others.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On 1/28, we bought 15 shares in the Gold ETF (GLD) at 160.23. On 2/1, we bought 200 shares of Peoples United (PBCT) for the IRA at 12.38. We also bought 100 shares of Raven Industries (RAVN) at 26.95, a zero buy. Then on 2/4, we bought 50 shares of Cincinatti Bell preferred (CBB.PR.B) at 47.50. 2/4 was also the day that Wells Fargo redeemed our 700 shares of its preferred at the pegged price of 25. That gave us an immaterial capital gain in the IRA, but we enjoyed many years of healthy dividends, as we do from all of our preferred issues. This provided more cash to work with above our 20% cash allocation target. On 2/5, we bought 100 shares of Gulf Island Fabrication (GIFI), one of our Tulane portfolio of companies, at 22.95, a value buy. On 2/7, we bought 9,000 shares of Onco Sec Medical (ONCS), a brand new name, for 0.228. This purchase violated our rule about buying stocks below a dollar, and we won't be adding shares any time soon because of that rule, but I just can't resist a really promising cancer story. Then on 2/11, we bought 100 shares of the SunTrust preferred (STI.PR.A) for the IRA at 24.37. I won't pay more than the par price for these preferreds, assuming some day they will all be redeemed at par, as in the Wells Fargo case. Today we bought 200 shares of Safeguard Scientifics (SFE) at 15.28.
Our numbers are all in for 2012. The total return for the musings portfolio was 13.2%, a solid year, since that figure includes commissions, dividends, everything. The yield is impacted by the near zero return on the 20% I keep in cash, and the low return on the 4% of the portfolio in a tax free municipal bond fund. So overall performance was pretty good on a risk adjusted basis - not easily attainable except in bull markets. Maybe I should give the Obama Administration a little more credit. Maybe they really are in favor of capitalism and good for private markets. Maybe the Obama policies, given a chance to really have an impact, could jump start our economy and keep the bull market going....Naaah!
Disclaimer time: Neither redwavemusings, nor its author, are investment advisors, and the transactions and securities reported here are not recommendations, and may not be suitable for any investor.
Sunday, January 27, 2013
2nd Term Hubris
Second terms are notorious for scandal, drift, and the diminishment of power ( the lame duck syndrome). Obama, in his inaugural, and by his actions since election day, seems to feel that the way to preempt these tendencies is to double down on a socialist/leftist agenda, thereby solidifying his left wing base but also setting himself up for an inability to achieve much of anything without recourse to questionable, even extra-constitutional, tactics. He also confirms the opposition's criticism of him as a far left, even socialist, advocate, when in fact he largely disarmed those critics by governing as something closer to a centrist in the first term.
Lest this analysis sounds a little too harsh, too extreme, Iask you to listen more closely not only to the President's own words, but more particularly to those of his supporters. Take Donna Brasile, who appears on the panel every Sunday on ABC's This Week. It's one thing to engage in idol worship, but another to be a commentator who simply ignores the very large budgetary issues, the issues of separation of powers, etc. in her advocacy while pumping for redistribution of income and wealth as an end justifying any means. Unfortunately, she is all too typical of the President's popular majority.
The inaugural speech, perhaps the worst I have ever heard, was virtually the Obama campaign stump speech, atypical for any re-elected President. Rather than give Republicans any reason to work with the Administration, it drew the battle lines in the starkest of terms, and used repeatedly the President's (and Dems) favorite rhetorical device - the building of a straw man by misrepresenting the opposition position, and then proceeding to tear that down. Mr. Obama has no one to blame but his own Administration if House Republicans choose to frustrate his policy goals.
And still, only the likes of Budget Committee Chairman Ryan speak seriously and determinedly about the need to do something about the nation's fiscal disaster. Let's hope Republicans develop a little backbone and tell Dems to pound sand on the sequester. We want the across the board cuts - Defense is going to be cut anyway in this Administration - so lets have at it. As for revenues, the real money is in the middle class and the underground economy, and Dems have said they will not go after that. The only revenue increase I would support now would be the ridiculous treatment of "carried interest" as a capital gain, but you've heard from me enough times on that already. Otherwise, it's time to go after entitlements. If you can't remember why that is, go back a few years in the archives to our series on entitlement spending for a refresher about why we can't afford what Congress has promised, and why we are bankrupting our children.
Maybe the Administration's second term woes have already begun, given the decision by a Federal Appeals Court invalidating the Administration's recess (non-recess) appointments that resulted in populating the National Labor Relations Board and the Consumer Financial Protection Board. That means that every decision made by the NLRB's recess appointees are likely invalidated. Incidentally, the Court determined that recess appointments made for over a hundred years have been unconstitutional if the Senate wasn't actually in recess between sessions (as opposed to any old time they went home on vacation).
This Administration flagrantly violated the Constitution when it claimed it could determine by itself when the Senate was in session, in violation of the separation of powers. In recent years, Republicans had copied a Democratic parliamentary trick adopted in 2007 to frustrate Bush 43 to gavel in and gavel out during session instead of formally declaring a recess. Bush chose to observe the Constitution and did not make recess appointments during such breaks. Obama did not, even making such appointments on January 4 to maximize the amount of time his recess appointees would stay in position. Now his Justice Department will no doubt appeal this latest decision to the Supreme Court.
Pending that Court's decision, Republicans should continue to oppose the renewed nomination of Richard Cordray as CFPB head until Dems agree to put that Agency's budget under Congressional control. Right now, the Dodd Frank Act says CFPB gets to determine its own budget - can you imagine? - and it's time that flagrant misstep was corrected.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
By the way, on that note, if you have kids, especially those at or near voting age, it's high time you sat them down and explained the financial facts of life. They may be voting for Dems because they favor abortion, gay rights, student loans, immigration amnesty, etc. etc., but they need to realize that the world they and their children will inherit will be a far less comfortable place if we keep spending ourselves into oblivion. They may talk tough about social security not being there for them, but are they doing any appreciable saving to make up the difference? They may say they can live with a single (government) payor health system, but they should at least understand that choices now open to us won't be open to them when they get to a certain age and all the fast food they have eaten causes them to develop the maladies of middle age.
So I think it's awful that we baby boomers are leaving this hopeless debt to our children and grandchildren, but they are now voting so they share responsibility too. You get the government you deserve, the old saying goes, and with it comes the economy you deserve too.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So why is it necessary for Phil Mickelson to apologize for saying what any high earner must be thinking, which is that he needs to move to a low (or no) income tax state, and maybe even retire or otherwise cut down on income since he is mainly working for the government? For Phil, who made $47 million in 2011 (according to Forbes) to question why he should live in California with its 13% state income tax, when none of it will be deductible because of the AMT, is perfectly legit. In fact, while Phil was making his apology for making his thoughts public, Tiger Woods was acknowledging that he relocated to Florida in 1996 because it had no income tax! Phil runs off at the mouth quite a bit, but he is a fan favorite in large part because he is open and honest. No apology necessary, Phil.
As for Redwave, regarding questions about whether I am contemplating similar moves, the answer is I don't make Phil money. Not even 1% of Phil money, assuming the Forbes estimate is accurate. Though I live in a high tax state, and think those tax levels are too high, it is not in California's class. There will be tweaks in our investment formula though, the first being that we'll be buying shares in the gold ETF (GLD) for our taxable account instead of for the IRA. More on those tweaks as the year goes by.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So I get in the car at the airport after returning from Orlando, and tune the car radio to the country music station I can get from Connecticut and find that there has been a format change to "all religious music programming." Resigned to another interminable period in the countryless abyss that has been New York radio, I went back to my typical dial hopping among the jazz and classic rock stations. Then lo and behold, the WSJ reported last week that FM 94.7 in New York City changed its format (ironically from all religion) to country. So now we've got a real good country station in NYC for the first time in 19 years (since the lamented WHN gave up the ghost) , and with much better reception than we could get from across the Sound.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The greatness of Stan Musial's talent on the baseball field is probably not sufficiently understood by today's fans, especially if they never saw him play. Most of his career was played in the modern era, meaning night baseball, integrated (and therefore talent laden) rosters, power pitching starters, etc. Yet, Like Ted Williams, Musial was a throwback to an earlier era, and the term '300 hitter" is simply an inadequate description of his stats. In fact, Musial's lifetime average was 331, and he hit 330 over a full season after he was 40 years old! He also hit 475 homers, 2nd on the all time National League list when he retired, and he is still in the top ten all time for major league hits. Yet he struck out less than 700 times! Unlike Williams, he was an aggressive base runner, though not necessarily the fastest. He was just as good on the road as at home, earning grudging admiration from enemy fans despite leading his beloved Cardinals to several championships. Brooklyn Dodger fans were especially of two minds about Musial who loved to hit at Ebbets Field, even though Dodger starters were usually the best in the league.
One great story that illustrates the mixed feelings of Brooklyn fans - Musial smashed a liner off the wall in right field in Ebbets Field and never hesitating, stretched it into a triple. One leather-lunged fan was heard to shout "Hey Music Box, how comes you hit so good and runs so fast, ya bum ya!"
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
And while we're at it, Earl Weaver led the Orioles in their salad days. Like most managers, he won when he had the horses, lost when he didn't, but unlike a lot of teams, top players loved playing for the Birds when Earl led them, even if they sometimes had run-ins with him. Instinctively, Earl knew the odds when it came to managerial strategy long before Money Ball's creators worked the numbers. You never saw the Orioles bunting and even though they had some speed, they didn't steal many bases either. Earl 's theory was you won games by hitting three run homers, and with boppers like Boog Powell and Frank Robinson around, it made no sense to risk baserunners.
This summer's Hall of Fame gathering in Cooperstown just won't be the same without Musial and Weaver, two of baseball's immortals from the era when the game was really the National Pastime.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
We have a lot of investing activity to report. On 12/31, we bought 20 shares of the TIPS ETF (TIP) for the IRA at 121.95. We also sold the remaining 866 shares of Presidential Life (PLFE) as its takeover was completed. We got 14 per share. We paid 14.75 for 266 shares in 2000 and paid 7.41 for 600 in 2002. On 1/3, we bought 200 shares of Knight Transportation (KNX) for 15.16. On 1/7, we bought 100 shares of Diebold (DBD), a zero buy at 31.09. You may have seen the stock has since taken a bit of a dive on a long overdue management shake-up. On 1/8, we bought 100 shares of Suntrust Preferred (STI.PR.A) for the IRA at 24.24. On 1/9, we bought 300 shares of Gencor (GENC) at 7.60, a value buy. On 1/11, we sold 100 shares of Shaw Group (SHAW) at 46.89. We paid 22.57 on 9/2/11. On 1/14, we bought 50 shares of ITW at 62.57. Then on 1/18, we sold 700 shares of Sirius (SIRI) at 3.18. We paid 3.19 for 300 on 7/24/07 and 1.34 for 400 on 9/2/08. On 1/22, we sold 100 shares of Belden (BDC) for 46.96. We paid 31.39 on 9/17/08. Then on 1/23, we sold the rest of our 500 shares in Shaw, which is being taken over, for 47.20. We paid 16.90 for 200 on 12/27/04, 16.14 for 200 on 8/29/05, and 26.10 for 100 on 7/15/11. On 1/24, we bought 100 shares of Newmont Gold (NEM) for 44.65. Finally, on 1/25, we bought 1800 shares of Frozen Food Express (FFEX) for 1.18.
The market rally is largely the effect of pricing in the inevitable future asset inflation caused by the Fed's expansionist monetary policy and the Administration's hopeless fiscal policy. Even as the value of our accounts goes up, we are maintaining our high (20%) cash balances, knowing that there will be a day of reckoning for the market when this bubble bursts.
Lest this analysis sounds a little too harsh, too extreme, Iask you to listen more closely not only to the President's own words, but more particularly to those of his supporters. Take Donna Brasile, who appears on the panel every Sunday on ABC's This Week. It's one thing to engage in idol worship, but another to be a commentator who simply ignores the very large budgetary issues, the issues of separation of powers, etc. in her advocacy while pumping for redistribution of income and wealth as an end justifying any means. Unfortunately, she is all too typical of the President's popular majority.
The inaugural speech, perhaps the worst I have ever heard, was virtually the Obama campaign stump speech, atypical for any re-elected President. Rather than give Republicans any reason to work with the Administration, it drew the battle lines in the starkest of terms, and used repeatedly the President's (and Dems) favorite rhetorical device - the building of a straw man by misrepresenting the opposition position, and then proceeding to tear that down. Mr. Obama has no one to blame but his own Administration if House Republicans choose to frustrate his policy goals.
And still, only the likes of Budget Committee Chairman Ryan speak seriously and determinedly about the need to do something about the nation's fiscal disaster. Let's hope Republicans develop a little backbone and tell Dems to pound sand on the sequester. We want the across the board cuts - Defense is going to be cut anyway in this Administration - so lets have at it. As for revenues, the real money is in the middle class and the underground economy, and Dems have said they will not go after that. The only revenue increase I would support now would be the ridiculous treatment of "carried interest" as a capital gain, but you've heard from me enough times on that already. Otherwise, it's time to go after entitlements. If you can't remember why that is, go back a few years in the archives to our series on entitlement spending for a refresher about why we can't afford what Congress has promised, and why we are bankrupting our children.
Maybe the Administration's second term woes have already begun, given the decision by a Federal Appeals Court invalidating the Administration's recess (non-recess) appointments that resulted in populating the National Labor Relations Board and the Consumer Financial Protection Board. That means that every decision made by the NLRB's recess appointees are likely invalidated. Incidentally, the Court determined that recess appointments made for over a hundred years have been unconstitutional if the Senate wasn't actually in recess between sessions (as opposed to any old time they went home on vacation).
This Administration flagrantly violated the Constitution when it claimed it could determine by itself when the Senate was in session, in violation of the separation of powers. In recent years, Republicans had copied a Democratic parliamentary trick adopted in 2007 to frustrate Bush 43 to gavel in and gavel out during session instead of formally declaring a recess. Bush chose to observe the Constitution and did not make recess appointments during such breaks. Obama did not, even making such appointments on January 4 to maximize the amount of time his recess appointees would stay in position. Now his Justice Department will no doubt appeal this latest decision to the Supreme Court.
Pending that Court's decision, Republicans should continue to oppose the renewed nomination of Richard Cordray as CFPB head until Dems agree to put that Agency's budget under Congressional control. Right now, the Dodd Frank Act says CFPB gets to determine its own budget - can you imagine? - and it's time that flagrant misstep was corrected.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
By the way, on that note, if you have kids, especially those at or near voting age, it's high time you sat them down and explained the financial facts of life. They may be voting for Dems because they favor abortion, gay rights, student loans, immigration amnesty, etc. etc., but they need to realize that the world they and their children will inherit will be a far less comfortable place if we keep spending ourselves into oblivion. They may talk tough about social security not being there for them, but are they doing any appreciable saving to make up the difference? They may say they can live with a single (government) payor health system, but they should at least understand that choices now open to us won't be open to them when they get to a certain age and all the fast food they have eaten causes them to develop the maladies of middle age.
So I think it's awful that we baby boomers are leaving this hopeless debt to our children and grandchildren, but they are now voting so they share responsibility too. You get the government you deserve, the old saying goes, and with it comes the economy you deserve too.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So why is it necessary for Phil Mickelson to apologize for saying what any high earner must be thinking, which is that he needs to move to a low (or no) income tax state, and maybe even retire or otherwise cut down on income since he is mainly working for the government? For Phil, who made $47 million in 2011 (according to Forbes) to question why he should live in California with its 13% state income tax, when none of it will be deductible because of the AMT, is perfectly legit. In fact, while Phil was making his apology for making his thoughts public, Tiger Woods was acknowledging that he relocated to Florida in 1996 because it had no income tax! Phil runs off at the mouth quite a bit, but he is a fan favorite in large part because he is open and honest. No apology necessary, Phil.
As for Redwave, regarding questions about whether I am contemplating similar moves, the answer is I don't make Phil money. Not even 1% of Phil money, assuming the Forbes estimate is accurate. Though I live in a high tax state, and think those tax levels are too high, it is not in California's class. There will be tweaks in our investment formula though, the first being that we'll be buying shares in the gold ETF (GLD) for our taxable account instead of for the IRA. More on those tweaks as the year goes by.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So I get in the car at the airport after returning from Orlando, and tune the car radio to the country music station I can get from Connecticut and find that there has been a format change to "all religious music programming." Resigned to another interminable period in the countryless abyss that has been New York radio, I went back to my typical dial hopping among the jazz and classic rock stations. Then lo and behold, the WSJ reported last week that FM 94.7 in New York City changed its format (ironically from all religion) to country. So now we've got a real good country station in NYC for the first time in 19 years (since the lamented WHN gave up the ghost) , and with much better reception than we could get from across the Sound.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The greatness of Stan Musial's talent on the baseball field is probably not sufficiently understood by today's fans, especially if they never saw him play. Most of his career was played in the modern era, meaning night baseball, integrated (and therefore talent laden) rosters, power pitching starters, etc. Yet, Like Ted Williams, Musial was a throwback to an earlier era, and the term '300 hitter" is simply an inadequate description of his stats. In fact, Musial's lifetime average was 331, and he hit 330 over a full season after he was 40 years old! He also hit 475 homers, 2nd on the all time National League list when he retired, and he is still in the top ten all time for major league hits. Yet he struck out less than 700 times! Unlike Williams, he was an aggressive base runner, though not necessarily the fastest. He was just as good on the road as at home, earning grudging admiration from enemy fans despite leading his beloved Cardinals to several championships. Brooklyn Dodger fans were especially of two minds about Musial who loved to hit at Ebbets Field, even though Dodger starters were usually the best in the league.
One great story that illustrates the mixed feelings of Brooklyn fans - Musial smashed a liner off the wall in right field in Ebbets Field and never hesitating, stretched it into a triple. One leather-lunged fan was heard to shout "Hey Music Box, how comes you hit so good and runs so fast, ya bum ya!"
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
And while we're at it, Earl Weaver led the Orioles in their salad days. Like most managers, he won when he had the horses, lost when he didn't, but unlike a lot of teams, top players loved playing for the Birds when Earl led them, even if they sometimes had run-ins with him. Instinctively, Earl knew the odds when it came to managerial strategy long before Money Ball's creators worked the numbers. You never saw the Orioles bunting and even though they had some speed, they didn't steal many bases either. Earl 's theory was you won games by hitting three run homers, and with boppers like Boog Powell and Frank Robinson around, it made no sense to risk baserunners.
This summer's Hall of Fame gathering in Cooperstown just won't be the same without Musial and Weaver, two of baseball's immortals from the era when the game was really the National Pastime.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
We have a lot of investing activity to report. On 12/31, we bought 20 shares of the TIPS ETF (TIP) for the IRA at 121.95. We also sold the remaining 866 shares of Presidential Life (PLFE) as its takeover was completed. We got 14 per share. We paid 14.75 for 266 shares in 2000 and paid 7.41 for 600 in 2002. On 1/3, we bought 200 shares of Knight Transportation (KNX) for 15.16. On 1/7, we bought 100 shares of Diebold (DBD), a zero buy at 31.09. You may have seen the stock has since taken a bit of a dive on a long overdue management shake-up. On 1/8, we bought 100 shares of Suntrust Preferred (STI.PR.A) for the IRA at 24.24. On 1/9, we bought 300 shares of Gencor (GENC) at 7.60, a value buy. On 1/11, we sold 100 shares of Shaw Group (SHAW) at 46.89. We paid 22.57 on 9/2/11. On 1/14, we bought 50 shares of ITW at 62.57. Then on 1/18, we sold 700 shares of Sirius (SIRI) at 3.18. We paid 3.19 for 300 on 7/24/07 and 1.34 for 400 on 9/2/08. On 1/22, we sold 100 shares of Belden (BDC) for 46.96. We paid 31.39 on 9/17/08. Then on 1/23, we sold the rest of our 500 shares in Shaw, which is being taken over, for 47.20. We paid 16.90 for 200 on 12/27/04, 16.14 for 200 on 8/29/05, and 26.10 for 100 on 7/15/11. On 1/24, we bought 100 shares of Newmont Gold (NEM) for 44.65. Finally, on 1/25, we bought 1800 shares of Frozen Food Express (FFEX) for 1.18.
The market rally is largely the effect of pricing in the inevitable future asset inflation caused by the Fed's expansionist monetary policy and the Administration's hopeless fiscal policy. Even as the value of our accounts goes up, we are maintaining our high (20%) cash balances, knowing that there will be a day of reckoning for the market when this bubble bursts.
Monday, January 14, 2013
Fiscal Cliff - Round 2
No sooner was the Fiscal Cliff resolved then we started down the next contentious path, the Sequester. The sequester was supposed to be fixed in the "Cliff" deal but only taxes were dealt with in that one, not spending. That left the GOP some leverage for the next round. Realizing his error, the President has tried to take the cuts the Dems don't like off the table while putting more taxes on. His excuse is that Congress should honor the bills for what they have already appropriated. This, of course is malarkey. Without a budget, Congressional spending authority has derived from continuing resolutions, and who knows where they actually stand. In any event, how is Congress to ever exercise leverage if the Administration can continue to spend at will and then claim it is with Congressional authorization? Obama's catch 22 type reasoning will bankrupt the country, inevitably.
Equally ludicrous are the ideas the Left has proposed concerning the issuance of the trillion dollar platinum coin or the use of the 14th amendment to bypass Congress on the debt limit. In fact, even the Administration, to its credit, says the 14th amendment cannot be interpreted that way, and a phony coin is the same as printing phony dollars. Just inflationery.
The GOP must use the next rounds of budget infighting (sequester, debt limit, spending authorizations) to try to reestablish spending discipline in a capitalist framework. What we have now is socialism, with the attendent inflation on the horizon. It will not be pretty. Obama says he will not negotiate, but he will have to, if he wants to get anything through Congress. Does he intend to rule by fiat, like his Venezuelan buddy Chavez? Maybe so. Can Dems really take over indefinitely with media support, in a socialist coup? Anything is possible. Freedom loving citizens need to stand for something, no matter how poorly they do in elections. The sad part is it may already be too late. Imagine if interest rates on federal debt returned to anything like normal (say 4%). We are looking at something like a $650 billion dollar annual interest bill and counting. That is on the order of the entire defense budget. Really, how can Dems seriously argue that we don't have a spending problem?
_____________________________________________________________________________
The Obama second term cabinet is taking shape, and we are looking at folks who think like he does. The argument is made that Presidents should get their way on cabinet choices, and I believe that, but Obama does himself a disservice when he picks second rate yes men. John Kerry will be confirmed despite (or maybe because of) his foreign policy proclivities to negotiate from weakness. The pick for Treasury will also be confirmed. I don't think he is going to take us in a better direction (see above) but he can't possibly be worse than Gaithner. The problem is Hegel at Defense, who is very weak on Iran, not a friend of Israel (forget what his apologists say), and whose mission it will be to cut defense spending to the bone, as we did during the Carter years.
I met then Senator Hegel at a 2007 fundraiser at the NY Yacht Club when he was trying to decide whether to run for re-election or to enter the Presidential sweepstakes. In the end, he did neither; the success of the Iraq surge, which he vehemently opposed, made it impossible for him to ever win a Republican primary. I never found out what he did with the money he raised. Standard operating procedure is that campaign funds are kept in a campaign account even if the candidate opts out. They are saved for some future race or contributed to candidates the recipient wants to support. This always struck me as ethically questionable, but that's how it goes. Regardless, there are enough reasons based on policy to oppose the Hegel appointment.
Republican opposition is unlikely to defeat Mr.Hegel, but if Senator Schumer doesn't support him, he is toast. Right now Schumer is on the fence. This might be interesting to watch.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In football, none of the teams we identified as "hot" made it to the final four, though Seattle was certainly noble in defeat. Instead, two clearly superior teams (Pats and Falcons) made it in and two teams we identified as also elite but playing inconsistently (Niners and Ravens) got through. In the end, football is a sport, unlike baseball, where even in a short series, the superior team is likely to prevail. I expect the Super Bowl to be Pats - Niners, though neither is a lock.
One mortal lock we identified was Alabama over ND. In college, you weigh conferences, not just teams. The Southeastern Conference is an NFL feeder system. Notre Dame plays a notoriously uneven schedule, several strong teams and lots of teams that are barely Division 1. If there was much Notre Dame money out there, even with 10 points, that's what I would call dumb money. If these teams played 100 times, Alabama would win 95 and cover 90 times.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As for the Hall of Fame balloting, the writers are having a tough time voting for steroid users, or even those suspected. They sent a message to current players, which is if you want your statistics to be ratified, you better not cheat. That's a good thing.
Eventually, the players that were really good enough will get in. Piazza certainly, since he likely never used, but also Bonds, Clemens, Sosa, etc. Maybe even Palmeiro whose numbers are plenty good enough. But not McGuire, who was one dimensional. The writers did well to consider that getting in the first time eligible is special, and no one who used should get that honor.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I am in Orlando (again) so we'll do the stocks next time. The equity markets continue to bubble, reflecting the inevitable inflation (worldwide) that is certain to come.
Equally ludicrous are the ideas the Left has proposed concerning the issuance of the trillion dollar platinum coin or the use of the 14th amendment to bypass Congress on the debt limit. In fact, even the Administration, to its credit, says the 14th amendment cannot be interpreted that way, and a phony coin is the same as printing phony dollars. Just inflationery.
The GOP must use the next rounds of budget infighting (sequester, debt limit, spending authorizations) to try to reestablish spending discipline in a capitalist framework. What we have now is socialism, with the attendent inflation on the horizon. It will not be pretty. Obama says he will not negotiate, but he will have to, if he wants to get anything through Congress. Does he intend to rule by fiat, like his Venezuelan buddy Chavez? Maybe so. Can Dems really take over indefinitely with media support, in a socialist coup? Anything is possible. Freedom loving citizens need to stand for something, no matter how poorly they do in elections. The sad part is it may already be too late. Imagine if interest rates on federal debt returned to anything like normal (say 4%). We are looking at something like a $650 billion dollar annual interest bill and counting. That is on the order of the entire defense budget. Really, how can Dems seriously argue that we don't have a spending problem?
_____________________________________________________________________________
The Obama second term cabinet is taking shape, and we are looking at folks who think like he does. The argument is made that Presidents should get their way on cabinet choices, and I believe that, but Obama does himself a disservice when he picks second rate yes men. John Kerry will be confirmed despite (or maybe because of) his foreign policy proclivities to negotiate from weakness. The pick for Treasury will also be confirmed. I don't think he is going to take us in a better direction (see above) but he can't possibly be worse than Gaithner. The problem is Hegel at Defense, who is very weak on Iran, not a friend of Israel (forget what his apologists say), and whose mission it will be to cut defense spending to the bone, as we did during the Carter years.
I met then Senator Hegel at a 2007 fundraiser at the NY Yacht Club when he was trying to decide whether to run for re-election or to enter the Presidential sweepstakes. In the end, he did neither; the success of the Iraq surge, which he vehemently opposed, made it impossible for him to ever win a Republican primary. I never found out what he did with the money he raised. Standard operating procedure is that campaign funds are kept in a campaign account even if the candidate opts out. They are saved for some future race or contributed to candidates the recipient wants to support. This always struck me as ethically questionable, but that's how it goes. Regardless, there are enough reasons based on policy to oppose the Hegel appointment.
Republican opposition is unlikely to defeat Mr.Hegel, but if Senator Schumer doesn't support him, he is toast. Right now Schumer is on the fence. This might be interesting to watch.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In football, none of the teams we identified as "hot" made it to the final four, though Seattle was certainly noble in defeat. Instead, two clearly superior teams (Pats and Falcons) made it in and two teams we identified as also elite but playing inconsistently (Niners and Ravens) got through. In the end, football is a sport, unlike baseball, where even in a short series, the superior team is likely to prevail. I expect the Super Bowl to be Pats - Niners, though neither is a lock.
One mortal lock we identified was Alabama over ND. In college, you weigh conferences, not just teams. The Southeastern Conference is an NFL feeder system. Notre Dame plays a notoriously uneven schedule, several strong teams and lots of teams that are barely Division 1. If there was much Notre Dame money out there, even with 10 points, that's what I would call dumb money. If these teams played 100 times, Alabama would win 95 and cover 90 times.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As for the Hall of Fame balloting, the writers are having a tough time voting for steroid users, or even those suspected. They sent a message to current players, which is if you want your statistics to be ratified, you better not cheat. That's a good thing.
Eventually, the players that were really good enough will get in. Piazza certainly, since he likely never used, but also Bonds, Clemens, Sosa, etc. Maybe even Palmeiro whose numbers are plenty good enough. But not McGuire, who was one dimensional. The writers did well to consider that getting in the first time eligible is special, and no one who used should get that honor.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I am in Orlando (again) so we'll do the stocks next time. The equity markets continue to bubble, reflecting the inevitable inflation (worldwide) that is certain to come.
