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Thursday, June 18, 2015


Blogging Anew

After a hiatus of almost 4 months, it is good to be posting again.  There is no shortage of things to discuss.  Your usually faithful scribe has not been sick, not suffered a computer failure and will never retire.  But there is a lot to do and precious little time to get to everything,  So while golf, bridge and jazz take up recreational time, there is also a mountain of reading to catch up on.  You can't write very intelligently unless you do your reading too.  So with those feeble excuses out of the way, let's see if we can put together a decent post.

The ineptitude of the Obama Administration is exceeded only by its flagrant disregard for the Constitution and its duties as described in that document.  The inability to convince its own party members in Congress concerning the fast track trade authority should have convinced anyone still on the fence about this uniquely incompetent Presidency.  But if you really want to be sickened, read the WSJ opinion pieces this week concerning the concessions already made in the "negotiations" with Iran about its nuclear program.  In retrospect, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's criticisms of the talks were far too mild.  Of course none of this really matters since the President has decreed that climate change is clearly the most pressing problem we face.  He's even got the Pope saying it.

Leftists everywhere seem to have lost their minds, from Bernie Sanders to NYC's hapless Mayor.  The early Clinton campaign, when it bothers to say anything, seems to have adopted Senator Warren's platform, even opposing free trade (never mind that when Bill was President he was a consistent advocate for free trade).  I guess it's cool for Warren that she is getting her way on policy without even having to run.

All of this makes one wonder how the GOP is going to sift through some 20 candidates to settle on someone who might be our next President.  A lot of people are asking me who I favor, and the best I can do at this point is to divide them into categories.  So first would be the ones that seem to lack credentials, or they should give up already having lost enough times to be disqualified (what I call the Harold Stassen rule).  In this group belong Pataki, Huckabee, Carson,and Perry.  Next are the crack pots who shouldn't be allowed to run for anything.  That group includes Trump, Cruz and Fiorini.  Then there are serious candidates that I might agree with but can't warm up to somehow.  This group includes Walker (please stay in Wisconsin), Bush, Graham, Paul Jindal, and Santorum.  Finally there are the candidates I actually prefer, Kasich and Rubio.  Somewhat reluctant candidates I might like if they came out of the box include Thune and Pence.

If I had to pick one candidate to support right now, it would be John Kasich. I recognize he might never catch fire, in which case I would move to Rubio.  Realistically, there is only so much oxygen and money in Florida, and this hampers both Rubio and Bush.  It's early, but then again it's not that early.  If you are not organizing and piling up money by now, it will very soon be too late.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------     Today's Fed announcement was kind of a non-event, in that they gave a stronger indication of what everyone assumed, that we will finally get a rate increase in September, probably a quarter of a point, and maybe another quarter in December.  The Fed did reserve the possibility that if the economy does not continue its improving trajectory, or if inflation fails to approach its 2% target, the increases could be delayed yet again.

The whole thing is so dysfunctional.  The Fed is acting as if we are in a Keynesian world when in fact, we are in unchartered territory with interest rates held interminably to the near zero level.  In this part of the continuum, Keynesian physics simply leads to the wrong answers.  The economy needs higher interest rates, so that lenders can lend profitably, businesses and investors can earn a return (without resorting to overvalued stocks), and employers will have a reason to hire and pay workers.  And by the way, the last thing the Fed should worry about "achieving" is 2% annual inflation.  I liked it better when the Fed's only charge was maintaining the stability of the currency, not debasing it.  I guess when public debt is in the umpteen trillions, debasing the currency looks like a good idea.

If the Fed comes through with increases to short term rates, maybe the economy will finally perk up.  It's insanity to continue indefinitely a policy that doesn't work.  In the meantime, bond investors have already voted with their feet, bidding prices down and driving ten year rates higher.  It proves what economists have always known, the Fed only controls rates on the short end.  Preferred stock prices are also down, and as a holder and buyer of preferred's, I would like to see them go a little lower.  Of course, when they go lower, they get called, and MetLife called a preferred issue this month which I quickly sold just over par.  Some of this fixed price action is due to the strength of the dollar, which is a result of the weakness of other currencies, particularly the Euro.  When rates rise, the dollar should strengthen more.

Meanwhile, don't fall for the Progressives' line that somehow inequality of income is stunting growth.  They don't explain the mechanism that would give us that result, but presumably they think there is not enough consumer spending since only the rich people are making enough money and they save it rather than spend it.  In future posts, I'll deal with this utter nonsense, but my continuing concern is that this idea is symptomatic of a socialist, and certainly anti-capitalist, strain that has been nurtured on college campuses and in minority communities.   Our youth today has little understanding of the central roles capitalism and free enterprise have played in the growth and prosperity of our nation. With their appalling lack of knowledge of our Constitution and our history, the millennials are susceptible to politicians whose policies only perpetuate dependence on government, economic underachievement, and envy of those with the determination and focus, and yes luck, to succeed.        
According to blogger, redwavemusings has achieved over 28,000 page views.  I guess you can't beat the price.
At least the sports world has been a pleasant distraction from all this.  We enjoyed a great hockey season, as my Islanders made a big stride and the playoffs were fun to watch.  I expected it to be a Rangers - Ducks final but they both lost in the semi's, and from that point, it was pretty clear that the B-Hawks were on their way to another cup.  In the NBA, we had the Warriors going all the way, not surprise there, but I must confess the result could have been different if Cleveland hadn't suffered key injuries along the way.

In baseball, my Mets are trying gamely to overcome inept field management, and still have a nose in front of the favored Washington's.  But the classiest teams seem to be the in the NL Central (Cards, Pirates, Cubs) and the AL Central (Royals, Twins, Tigers).  If the Mets and Birds can win the NL East and AL East respectively, we'll be grateful for a puncher's chance in the playoffs.
So you want to see a little jazz before June winds down?  If you're anywhere near Old Lyme, Ct, head for The Side Door on June 27 to see the Jeremy Pelt Quartet, including the great drummer Victor Lewis.This weekend, a Miles Davis tribute quartet, featuring drummer Jimmy Cobb and Sonny Fortune on sax, headlines Birdland.  From June 23-28, Village Vanguard has the Harold Mabern Trio.  On June 22, Rainbow Room has an all star big band featuring Dan Levinson and Molly Ryan.  On the 27th, the late show at Smalls will feature the Lew Tabackin Trio.  Smoke has back to back features you should catch if possible.  June 19-21, the George Coleman Quartet includes the aforementioned pianist Harold Mabern.  Then June 26-28, Helen Sung brings her quartet in.

It's not too early to be thinking about summer jazz festivals either.  Jazz in July at 92nd St. Y, July 21-30, will include Anat Cohen, Bill Charlap, Bucky Pizzarelli, Dick Hyman, Harry Allen, Houston Person, Howard Alden, Jeremy Pelt, Ken Peplowski, Renee Rosnes, and Kenny Washington. Newport, RI, Jazz Festival, July 31-August 2,  has Arturo Sandoval, Bria Skonberg Quintet, Cassandra Wilson, Christian McBride Trio, Dr. John, Kenny Garrett, Lou Donaldson, Pat Martino, Tom Harrell, and Wycliffe Gordon.

Lichfield, CT Jazz Festival, Aug 7-9 features Anat Cohen, Christian McBride Trio, and Wycliffe Gordon and friends.  Bria Skonberg and Bucky Pizzarelli also headline Morristown, NJ Jazz and Blues Festival on August 15.  Karrin Allyson stars at the New Haven, CT Jazz Festival August 22.  Saratoga, NY Jazz Festival, June 27-28 includes Cassandra Wilson and the Christian McBride Big Band. Vince Giordano and Friends will appear at the Louis Armstrong House Museum in Corona, Queens the afternoon of July 18.

The jazz world mourns free jazz pioneer Ornette Coleman, whose music many of us did not really understand all that well, but who was among the most innovative figures in jazz history.

It will take us a while to catch up on the stock transactions, but we'll pick up where we left off:


Date               Stock           Price          Shares          Comments
2/24                GLD            115             20                
3/6                  GIFI              14.40         200              Oil Patch on sale
3/9                  GLDD            5.90         400          
3/9                   TIP             112.21          20             Fed wants inflation
3/10                 GIFI             13.55         200           Trust in the Tulane portfolio
3/11                  PQ                2.60          800            "  "       "     "         "
3/11                  GLD            111.23          20        
3/16                 RAVN            19.72        200
3/23                  PQ                  2.08        1000        Buying a falling knife?
3/24                 TIP                113.94         20  
4/1                   BRS                54.89         50       Tulane portfolio on sale
4/1                   XYL                35.38         100
4/2                   GLD               115.44          20 
4/8                   AWCMY           5               500
4/10                 ALGN               53              50
4/14                PFG.PR.B          25.26         100
4/17                 NWBI               12.15         200
4/20                 PCP                   201.90        10
4/20                NEE.PR.C           25.47         100
4/27                CNRD                 31              100      Buying Tulane again 

Date         Stock        Shares    Price    Date Purchased     Price      Comments
2/23         AAON      100        23.71       1/26/05          2.84          Ten years work
3/6            GNE         300        7.39         6/20/14          7.30
3/10           SF             50        53.90       12/10/07        22.05
3/13          MAN         25        83.43         5/30/06        66.25
3/13          SEIC          50        43.40       12/14/08        13.86       75 months for a triple
3/17         SHLM         50        43.62       11/1/06          24.26
3/19           B               50        40.50        3/22/99          8.31
3/20         ABC            50       113.06       11/29/01       14.34       What a home run
3/24          MAN          25        86.37         5/30/06        66.25      Employment comes back
3/25          BRLI          100       35.76         6/24/13        28.18     Takeover Target
4/2              GNE         300        8.10          11/8/11         7.88   Price going up
4/7             KMX          50        73.33          8/30/04         9.73    Split adjusted
4/10           BDC           50        94.72          11/24/08      11.69
4/15           GNE          300        9.18             11/8/11        7.88     Still going up
4/16           SHLM         50       47.58           3/19/07        20.89
4/23           GNE           200      10.11           12/14/11        7.61     Still going up
4/23           NR              200      10.54          12/5/14          9.80
4/27           PFE             100      35.30           2/14/02        41.40    OK to take a loss     

Monday, February 23, 2015


On The Road Again

Given no post since December 16 (seems like yesterday) and the prospect of spending most of the next two weeks on the road, and another trip at the end of March, the urge to do a fresh post was compelling.  There certainly is no shortage of things to kvetch about. Our so-called President (the academic - in - chief) sees to that.  All this March traveling makes it most unlikely that I will be playing bridge at the Spring Nationals in one of my favorite seedy haunts, New Orleans. Another March trip, even a vacation type, seems out of the question.  I keep telling myself I will go to all these events when I retire.  But that doesn't really happen, does it? On the other hand, if my company keeps performing so ineptly, I may get a not so gentle nudge, since there won't be all that many of us they will be able to afford to keep paying, especially at my exorbitant salary (not to mention expense budget).     

However, if this assignment continues through the summer (summer, there's a blessed term), my travel schedule will take me to Chicago at the same time the Summer Nationals happens to be scheduled there, so I will get to play some sessions, possibly extending my stay.  Yay!  It sounds too good to be true, so something is likely to screw it up.  I won't speculate on what that might be.

Though this is not a blog that dwells on sad events (only stupid ones), we usually give just a quick, though sincere nod to those notables in the passing parade who left a mark worth commemorating.  In the last two months though, we have really lost some big timber.

Saturday night brought news. not unexpected, that the great trumpeter Clark Terry had passed  away at 94.  Clark was still appearing on the Birdland bandstand, as well as other international venues until a few years ago when his diabetes simply made it impossible to perform, let alone get around.  I was privileged to see him perform live about 4 or 5 times, at Birdland and at a great concert he led at Morgan Park in Glen Cove where he lived for a few years.  He always played with such enthusiasm and artistry, and this translated to the young jazz performers he usually surrounded himself with, and who were so thrilled to have the opportunity to share the stage with him.  Besides being one of the last connections to the birth of jazz, Terry was one of the idiom's great teachers.  His resume included long stints with the Ellington Band, the Basie Band, his own bands, and most familiarly with Doc Severinsen's NBC orchestra during the heyday of Johnny Carson's Tonight Show. One of their running gags was to play a game called Stump the Band, and when an audience member posed some school fight song or camp song, of course no one in the band would really know it.  Invariably, CT ( or Mumbles, his nickname) would pop up and say "I've got it" and go off on his famous mumbling, scatting style of singing to some vamp the band would cook up, leaving Johnny and Ed to do their patented break ups and the rest of the band in stitches.

With Terry's passing, only a couple of pioneers are left (most notably, drummers Roy Haines and Jimmy Cobb and guitarist Bucky Pizzarelli).  The idiom is in very good hands these days, largely because of the tradition passed down by jazz educators like Terry, Dr. Billy Taylor, and current educators Wynton Marsalis and Pat Martino.       
In the sports world, we were especially hard hit, losing Ernie Banks, Jean Beliveau, Billy Casper and Jerry Tarkanian.

Ernie Banks was baseball's counterpart to Terry, an eternal optimist who loved day baseball in Chicago, and who enjoyed a Hall of Fame career playing for a team that made losing into an art form.  A two time (back to back) MVP for a team that didn't come close to winning half its games, Banks was an anomaly as a shortstop who could hit and had tremendous power, unleashing over 500 home runs despite being a wrist hitter.  In the 1950's, when there were only 16 Major League teams, every team had boppers, but the winning teams had pitching and defense, two things the Cubs never seemed to have.  As a shortstop, Banks was, well, a hitter.  It was no small coincidence that the Cubs became contenders when Banks transitioned to first base where his talents constituted a more traditional fit.  With the slick fielding, much lighter hitting Don Kessinger at short, Glen Beckert at 2nd, Hundley catching and the passable Jim Hickman in center, the suddenly good up the middle Cubs were a legitimate favorite to win the 1969 pennant, and would have except they were simply outpitched by the Miracle Mets.  With Banks, Ron Santo and Billy Williams manning the corners, this was a really good team.   Nevertheless, through it all Ernie Banks, Mr. Cub, would chirp "Let's play 2" and everyone had to smile.

Jean Beliveau was among the most graceful and talented hockey players ever.  Even when "Rocket Richard" was considered the greatest of Les Habitants, hockey afficianados reveled in Beliveau's seemingly effortless style.  When he was on the ice, you just couldn't  take your eyes off him.  He had the good fortune to play his entire career on one of sports' greatest dynasties.  He had too much class to point out what everyone knew - he was as much the key to their success as any one else.    

When golf's Big 3 of the 1960's reigned - Palmer, Nicklaus and Player, - real golf fans knew there was one other player who belonged in that group and that was Billy Casper.  In fact, when healthy and playing well, he was the clear number 2 to Nicklaus.  Despite being allergic to almost everything under the sun, (famously, the Casper family van was stocked with exotic foods to suit his dietary needs while on tour) Billy Casper won a boatload of tour events, two U.S. Opens (at Winged Foot when he made seemingly every putt and then at Olympic when he overhauled Arnie who had a big lead on the last nine, forcing a playoff which Casper won decisively), and a Masters Title.  Among the top players, Casper was always considered the best putter.  That he was such a well liked guy was clear from the tributes that poured in the last few weeks.

Maybe not so well liked was Jerry Tarkanian, the college basketball Coach who was the model for Gabe Kaplan's character in the movie Fast Break.  Tark's skill was as a recruiter.  He saw college basketball for what it was and became - a big money sport.  Not for him was there going to be lip service to"getting an education" and all the other NCAA required folderol.  He simply recruited the best players he could find, no matter their academic standing or potential.  The result was that he brought winning programs wherever he went, even if a lot of the battle was staying one step ahead of the NCAA police.  Look, for my money, I think Division1 programs are all about exploitation of student athletes and fans for money.  So if it's going to be that way, you either despise it or you love it and anybody who calls the hypocrisy for what it is gets my vote.   That was Tark the Shark.
John Whitehead worked his way up to be CEO of Goldman Sachs when its name was synonymous for high ethical standards on Wall Street.  Yes, there was a time that phrase was not an oxymoron.  Whitehead was a Quaker who nevertheless led his platoon on its D-DAY landing, and late in life, led the efforts to build the memorial at Ground Zero in Manhattan.  A graduate of Haverford College, Whitehead went on to Chair its Board of Managers and contributed so much to the College that its Student Center is named for him.  I had the privilege of meeting him once, and he was so elegant, almost regal in disposition and carriage.  He had a most significant life.
Perhaps not quite so impressive as the above folks, but noteworthy for my generation was Leslie Gore.  As "Little Leslie Gore," her explosive breakthrough in pop music at the age of 16 with the song "It's My Party" in 1963 marked a sea change in how records came to our attention.  It all seemed to happen within a few days when Murray the K and Cousin Brucie raced each other to annoint the new Princess of Rock.  The new paradigm would extend to chart busting hits by the Chiffons (He's So Fine), Jackie Wilson (Baby Work
Out), and "Little Peggy March" (I Will Follow Him) that all rocketed to the top overnight.  These proved to be just a dress rehearsal for Beatlemania, which took hold in 1964.

Gore was determined to be more than a one or two hit hit wonder, and did have some 8 or 9 significant hit records, some of which she wrote,  and one (You Don't Own Me) which forshadowed women's liberation.  One of my personal favorites of her records is the little remembered California Nights which I thought was musically in a different league from the others.

In recent years, Gore had some comeback gigs and I think those gave her a lot of satisfaction.  Too bad she didn't have a little more time.

Before we get to the stocks, I just have to wonder if there is anyone on the planet who didn't see the recent Ukrainian cease fire talks as a repeat of Munich.  If Nevile Chamberlain had actually been there, he couldn't have made Putin any happier.  As for our President, as usual when important things are to be done, he wasn't there.  Not that he would have made any difference.  It's just that he's never there anymore.  What job does he think he was actually elected to do?  He has long since outgolfed Eisenhower, Clinton and Bush 43.  But he's as bad or worse on Iran.  And he's pissed that Netanyahu is going to speak to Congress about Iran!  Tell you what - he can be angry when he starts showing up.  Until then, I don't really care how embarrassed he is. 
Back to Ukraine, the "cease fire" never actually took effect as one side kept shooting and the other side started running, backwards that is.  This aptly demonstrated two different views concerning negotiations.  Democracies negotiate to get an agreement - folly to be sure.  Autocrats negotiate for time and advantage.  Their sole aim is to freeze their adversary, get whatever they can without hostilities, then resume hostilities to get whatever else they want.  When we start treating autocrats like autocrats, and realize what they want out of the negotiating process, then we might have a little more realistic view of how the world works.

The only reason to negotiate is to confirm the hard fought gains we make on the battlefield.  Otherwise, there is no point.  As President Kennedy often said, he would go the the summit, but only to sign an agreement already achieved.

There have been lots of transactions since December 16, and they are listed below.  For 2014, we gained 4.95 %, which is all in (commissions, dividends, etc.).  We underperformed the S&P, but that is to be expected given we keep 20% in cash, and have lots of gold, preferreds, TIPS and municipals.  So at this point, we expect to underperform in up years and outperform in down years.

Date             Symbol         Shares            Price          Comments

12/17              GHM          100                26.67          Value Buy
12/29              ALGN          50                56.57
1/2                   GLD            20               112.49
1/2                   GNE           400                 6.15        
1/6                   WOR          100                28.74     Rolled Steel for all
1/7                   PRH            100               25.11
1/9                  GNE            400                 5.80     Fracking in Israel
1/12                DOV             50                69.91
1/13                BK.PR.C      100              23.95    Bank of NY preferred
1/14                NR               300                8.22   Tulane portfolio - oil patch is dicey
1/16               PQ                700                3.10 More oil patch bottom fishing
1/20              TIP                  20               113.94
1/26              GHM             100                23.98
1/28               HSC             200                15.46
1/30              BK.PR.C       100                24.31
2/2               GHM              100               21.10   Again?  Groundhog Day
2/5                PQ                 700                3.20
2/10             BK.PR.C        100               24.45   That should be enough
2/18              KN                200               17.82    Value
2/20             RAVN             100              21.52

Date           Symbol          Shares    Price       Date      Price Paid

12/19           KMX            50        65.55     1/20/09       7.99       an 8 timer from used cars
12/22           Y                    5         473.00   5/16/08     370.99
12/24          USAK           100        25.46     10/17/12     3.43
12/24          KNX             100        34.19     12/22/03    11.40     Love them truckers
12/26         BMTC            100        30.99     4/30/07       24.28
12/30         USAK            100        27.26     10/17/12      3.43
1/5              HZO              100        19.56     11/10/08      1.54    Boats are back in business
1/5              HZO              100        19.56      7/19/10       6.76
1/21            USAK           100        28.92      10/17/12     3.43
1/22            BYD              200       13.35       10/27/08     3.95
1/23           ABC                50        94.38        11/29/01    14.34
1/27           LOW              50         69.75         1/23/06     31.74
2/3            HZO               100        27.27         9/27/13       12.20
2/4            NEM              50          24.72         3/26/07     43.78     A needed loss (taxes)
2/4            NEM              50          24.72         2/28/11      54.60     Another
2/9            SJM               25          112.68        1/21/14      97.80
2/12          HZO              100          25.54        7/19/10       6.76
2/13          BYD              200          14.62       10/27/08      3.95      It was a nice gamble
2/17          PHM             100          22.68       12/22/10      7.34      A triple from the housing market
2/19          USAK           100         31.85        10/17/12      3.43                                   


Tuesday, December 16, 2014


Yuletide Musings

The Redwavemusings election forecast was pretty close to the actual result.  In NY, the GOP flipped the Senate as we predicted, and both of my dark horse Congressional candidates, Grimm and Zeldin, came through.  Nationally we had the GOP narrowly winning the Senate, gaining 6-7 seats, but in the end, they gained 9!  That's because they flipped NC and held both GA (without a runoff) and KS.  The GOP really did damage in the Governor's races, going over the 30 mark with upset wins in MD and IL, and beating the world's worst candidate, Martha Coakley in MA.  Winning those three true blue states should have sent the Dems into serious introspection, but I see no signs of it yet.  Imagine if the close Senate races in NH, and surprisingly, VA had also gone for the Red team!

Dems ascribe the whole debacle to lousy turnout, which it was, but the fact is that millenials, Latinos, and even women showed little interest in voting for Democratic candidates.  2016 could be quite different, and a lot can change in two years.  The media has already sounded the starting gun on the Presidential race, mostly anointing Hilary Clinton as the heir apparent, but my view is that similar to 2008, the eventual President is not really on our radar screen yet.  And I'm not up for kick starting the next round this early anyway.

Last week, the major discussion topic in political circles was the Senate report on the CIA's methods for extracting information from known terrorists (actually, the lame duck majority's report; the GOP did not support it by and large with the notable exception being Senator McCain, who has actually experienced torture).   There are good arguments on both sides.  Torture does not reflect well on the inflicter. Publicizing and condemning these episodes, on the other hand, provides propaganda fodder for our antagonists.  It seems to me that the debate about whether torture yielded actionable intelligence is beside the point.  It's either right or it's not.  Personally, I won't lose a minute of sleep over whatever befalls Al Queda and Taliban types.  Their methods will always be worse, as they've proven for the umpteenth time in Pakistan today, in Australia over the weekend and everywhere you look.  These are not soldiers deserving of treatment in line with the Geneva conventions.  They are cowardly beasts.  So if the CIA went down the wrong road, I would chalk that up to good intentions under duress, a lesson learned and move on.  What we need is a stronger will to eradicate these beasts, and that will require a certain ruthlessness on the battlefield.

By the way, while I recognize that drones minimize our casualties, I have a negative view about them.  There is too much collateral damage and it's kind of a cowardly tactic.  In the long run, I don't think they are effective.  This administration is dedicated to the proposition that actual warfare is to be avoided.  While an admirable sentiment, I don't now how you get rid of the earth's scum without taking it on in combat.

It's also time we supported our friends a bit.  That means Israel.  There are perfectly awful things going on with anti-Israeli boycotts and other anti-Semitic initiatives throughout Europe.  Europeans of almost all stripes seem to have fallen for the propaganda of the Palestinians.  That's something I'll remember when I'm shopping for wine and other commodities Euro countries export.     

In the world of sports, we have the prospect of the football playoffs, when mercifully, I won't have the Jets to watch.  This Jets team is the worst since the Rich Kotite, Charley Winner days, and while Rex is sure to walk the plank as a result, he is only partly to blame.  The real culprit is GM Idzik who assembled a team without cornerbacks in what has become a pass happy league.  Not too smart.  Though the Jets are marginally better at wide receiver than last year, it is still a team that somehow never has anyone open.  So I'm not really sure how Rex was supposed to win too many games.  Still, the ideal position for Ryan is defensive coordinator somewhere.  He just doesn't know offense and a head coach simply cannot delegate that whole sphere to a coordinator as he has done.  The tip off was early in the season when the Jets called an errant time out negating a game tying field goal.  It turned out that Rex hadn't called it; it was called by either the OC or a player!  How can that happen? 

My view is that both Rex and Idzik should be gone.

To the consternation of certain Giant fans I know, it looks like their coach will be back to try again next year.  At least he has two super bowls on his resune.
Then there's hockey and my resurgent Islanders.  Saturday night's game against Chicago was the most entertaining and best played hockey game I have seen in years.   Funny how no one is belly aching about the Coliseum now that the Isles are playing well.
As for the Mets, I'm not sure why they invested in a 32 year old outfielder with declining (though still useful) skills, when his numbers are sure to fall at Citifield (versus Colorado) even with shorter fences.  Yet there he is.  As for the "need" to trade a surplus starting pitcher, I wonder why?  Aren't these guys going down all the time?  Wouldn't the best way to limit the young pitchers' innings be to go with a 6 man rotation?  Maybe then Terry could leave them in the game longer and not use up his bullpen by the end of May.
For anyone who made it through Peter Pan Live a couple of weeks ago, you have my eternal admiration.  Maybe if you were unfamiliar with the kinescope of NBC's 1950's-60's productions, you simply didn't realize how bad the current version was.  Though Allison Williams did her best in the title role, she is, to paraphrase Lloyd Benson, no Mary Martin.  As for Christopher Walken, all I could think about was how does a great actor like that allow himself to be so miscast?  And why play Hook as such a dour, wooden scoundrel?  After all, Walken showed he could act with enthusiasm in Wedding Crashers.  He could have made the attempt anyway.

The other gripe I had is that allowing political correctness to play havoc with a work of art is singularly bad judgment.  The show stopper in Peter Pan is the Blood Brothers song and dance number where Pan and Tiger Lilly strike up their alliance.  But in Live, Tiger Lilly's Indians somehow became Islanders - Polynesians, which I guess should have been an affront to any Hawaiians watching. The lyrics were all changed, the song was ruined, it had none of the heart stopping energy of the original, and I wasn't sure whether to just gag or turn the set off.

So if you want to see it done right, get the DVD with Mary Martin and Cyril Richard as Captain Hook, who stole the show by the way, in what should be a fool proof part.  Mary Martin was one of Broadway's all time greats, starring in the original casts of Peter Pan, The Sound of Music, and South Pacific. How's that for a hat trick!
The stock market is not for the timid or the faint of heart these days.  Most people should be in the market through their 401{k} and mutual funds.  Only those of us who are hobbyists and really spend time on this shtuff should be investing in individual stocks. Fund investors should stay in the game, as Jim Cramer says.  The market is going to have its ups and downs, but if you believe in America and in capitalism, your money needs to be working for you to keep up.

We are heading into year end in what looks to be a break even year.  If so, we'll take it. Next year figures to be better since it's the third year of the Presidential cycle and that's usually the friendliest.  For now, though, it just looks like the market wants to sell off into the close every day.  That's both bearish and discouraging.  That's also why the Redwave formula for people at my advanced age is to keep 20% in cash at all times.
Here are the transactions since we last posted.

Date      Symbol           Shares         Price          Comments 
11/24      NEM               200           19.54          Value buy
11/24      ALGN               50           55.64          Still building position
11/24     BK.PR.C          100           24.19          Preferred on sale
11/25     TATT                344             6.45        Market order, didn't quite fill
11/25     XLY                  100           38.45
11/26     PRH                  100           24.87       New preferred - insurer
11/26    NWSA               200           15.45
12/1      PQ                     600             3.64     Oil patch - Tulane portfolio
12/2     TIP                       20           112.78    Inflation hedge still makes sense
12/5     NR                      300              9.80    Another Tulane stock - oil service
12/8     PQ                      600              3.63   Energy shares on sale
12/9    TAI                      100             20.32
12/11  PWR                    100             28.22  Wind is on sale too
12/15  HSC                    200             16.83
12/16  BK.PR.C             100             22.76

Sales                                                                    Date purchased   price paid
11/3     SXI                       50             86.09              5/11/98            30.25
11/4     GIFI                     100            20.97              8/11/04            20.34
11/7     KNX                    100            29.94              1/10/00             3.33
11/7     KMX                    50             56.19               1/20/09             7.99
11/10   ITW                      25             92.73               9/15/06             44.50
11/11   GIFI                     100            22.13               5/18/05             18.64
11/20   BOLT                   500           22.00               1/7/09                7.92
11/20   BOLT                   300           22.00               4/2/09                7.70
11/20   BOLT                   200           22.00               5/9/14                16.27
11/25   SHLM                  100           38.93               2006                  24.01
11/26   LOW                     50            62.80               6/27/05              28.30
12/4    USAK                   100           21.47               10/17/12             3.43
12/10   SEIC                    100           41.02               12/4/08              13.86          

Sunday, November 02, 2014


Special Standard Time Issue

Last night was "Fall Back" night when we gain an extra hour.  For a little while, my vampire schedule will get a break; I've been both leaving for work and returning in the dark.  For at least a week or so, the morning commute should now be in daylight.  But soon the shorter days will reimpose the vampire syndrome.  I'll be spending time in Washington each of the next two weeks, before a trip to beautiful Hollywood, Florida.  Lots of reading time in prospect, but not much blogging time, I fear.

So I have to remember to vote Tuesday before leaving for work and in New York, the State Senate races are where the action is.  Somehow in this bluest of big blue states, Republican district drawing artists manage to contrive to win about half or more of the Senate seats a lot of the time.  Even when they lost the majority in 2012, leader Dean Skelos somehow managed to convince a group of breakaway Dems to join his conference in a power sharing arrangement.  In the off years, like 2014, the GOP has a better chance to win the majority, and I think it will happen again this year.

The other interesting NY races are for Congress.  Two in particular have shown swings toward the GOP in late polling.  Though under indictment (not really that big a handicap in NY) Rep. Grimm seems to be on his way to holding his seat.  And on Long Island, state Senator Lee Zeldin appears to have the momentum to unseat Rep. Bishop.

Nationally, though there are a number of interesting governors' races, the real action is in the Senate where the GOP needs to gain 6 seats for a majority.  There are ten close races where the polling has generally shown leads within the margin of error.  In two of these, Kentucky and Arkansas, McConnell and Cotton appear to be pulling away.  Arkansas would constitute a flip, adding to West Virginia and Montana where the GOP will gain seats easily.  In the other 8 races, I predict Sen. Hagan will barely hold on for reelection in NC, and Independent Greg Orman (who says he will caucus with the majority, but I don't believe it, he will caucus with the Dems) looks like he will edge out Sen. Roberts to flip KS for the Dems.  The rest of the news looks bad for the Dems.  No matter what the polls show, I think Sullivan will win a close one in Alaska to flip that seat, and I also expect Republicans to flip Iowa and Colorado.  So that's net 5.  New Hampshire is coming in tied; Let's say Shaheen holds off Scott Brown (she might not).   That still leaves Georgia and  Louisiana, which both might go to runoff.  In Louisiana, once the Tea Party candidate is eliminated, Cassidy should beat Landrieux in the December two way.  Georgia is harder to call, but it looks like the Democrat Nunn peaked too early and has lost her momentum.  So I expect Republicans to gain 6-7 seats to gain the majority.  But these races are remarkably close and turnout will be a major factor, where the Dems have the better ground game but the Repubs have more enthusiasm.

In the House, the GOP should expand its majority to over 240 seats.  There are going to be interesting close races for Governor in Georgia, Florida, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Wisconsin, Colorado, and maybe even Illinois. So, if you're a political junkie, open a bottle or two of wine and dig in for a long night this Tuesday.

Karrin Allyson headlines at Birdland November 11-15.  The singer's show was terrific the last time she appeared there.  If money's no object, come early on Wednesday (Louis Armstrong Eternity Band) or Friday (Birdland Big Band) for the 5:15 show and dinner.

What a mess in the Middle East.  As our air force ineffectively degrades ISIS (while Iran applauds), we are simultaneously on both sides and no side of the historic Shia/Sunni schism.  And who do we criticize?  Israel, the only democracy in the region and our only real friend there.  In short, we don't really seem to have any foreign policy at all, which is why Obama's approval ratings are in the toilet and why the Dems are headed for another mid-term meltdown (we think).

.Stocks are having a tumultuous fall as volatility has returned.  The traders love it, investors hate it, but the good news is that the Redwave portfolio is approaching its all time high again, a long way back from the gut wrenching swoon the market took. Here are the recent transactions:

Date        Symbol    Shares   Price      Comments

10/6         ALGN     50        48.76      building the position
10/7       BK.PR.C   100      22.88     Bank of NY preferred
10/13        KN         100      23.41     Value buy of falling knife
10/13       XYL        100      32.55     building this position too
10/14       TIP           20      114.02    But there is no inflation yet
10/15      SHLM      100      28.98    Value buy - good price
10/17    ALGN         50       45.80
10/20    WFC.PR.P 100      23.59    Wells Fargo preferred
10/22     KN            200      18.41   More value at this price
10/23     XYL          100      34.48  
10/27     TAI           100       20.68  
10/28     DVN           50       57.74   Energy issues pressured
10/29    ALGN          50       52.10
10/30    GLD             20       115.80  Buy gold when no one else wants it


10/15    PLP            1000      20    Preferred stock called away, $3,300 cap loss
10/31     B                 100     36.75   Paid 8.31 (adjusted for splits) on 3/22/99

Neither Redwave Musings not its author are investment advisers and the transactions listed here are not intended as guidance or recommendations.

Saturday, October 04, 2014


October Baseball

Though baseball is best played and watched in summer weather, the post season has always been an October phenomenon, even in the days when we went directly from the pennant race to the World Series.  With the modern multiple rounds of playoffs, the post season now stretches pretty much across all of October, and if northern teams survive, weather is an issue.  No matter though, the added intensity and pressure of playoff baseball makes for truly watchable and memorable games.  Already we have had several.  For one, the play-in game between Kansas City and Oakland was a classic.  Then we had the two extra inning thrillers also won by KC over the Angels.   Yesterday's Dodger Cardinal slugfest was continually entertaining (especially with Ron Darling and Cal Ripken Jr. providing color commentary), and the Oriole come from behind win in game 2 versus the Tigers provided great fodder for the second guessers (why did Ausmus remove Sanchez and how could they send Cabrera home with nobody out?).  And this is just the beginning.  I know people love football and it gets the big ratings, but I still say a lot of that is driven by gambling.  For my money, I would much rather watch playoff baseball.

But football goes on despite the Ray Rice and other incidents.  People shouldn't be surprised.  If you've got a bet down or a fantasy team (and who doesn't have either or both). you will be watching the game, no matter who's playing.  The Rice thing I don't really get.  Why does the NFL Commissioner have the responsibility to dispense justice?  It seems to me this is either a criminal matter or a civil matter, and if a case is to be pursued, it will need Mrs. Rice to press charges or to sue.  If she doesn't, then as a football matter, I'm not even sure that a suspension is appropriate, even though our sensibilities are highly offended.  Meanwhile, the abused spouse is probably steaming that her husband's considerable salary is not being earned and paid.  The effect is to punish HER!     

As long as we're talking sports, let's stop the useless chest pounding about the US performance in the Ryder Cup.   The Euro Tour is just about as good as ours and whoever the home team is in the Cup should be the favorite.  Our guys did what they could but really, how many points do you still expect old Phil to get at this point, or Jim Furyk for that matter.  As for the excuses that we don't play foursomes and that's why we always lose in that format, who does play foursomes?  No one I know of, and certainly not European pros.  For something that happens for one weekend every other year, an awful lot of ink is wasted on the Ryder Cup, in my opinion.

On the other hand, unless you read the Wall Street Journal, there has not been nearly enough written about the horrendous tenure of Eric Holder as Attorney General, now mercifully ending.  He continued and even expanded on the recent unfortunate tendency of AG's to politicize the office that began with John Mitchell but was cemented by the awful Janet Reno during the Clinton years.  There are so many positions and cases where Holder and his team abused the legal system, due process and the Constitution, but the most offensive of all could be the current lawsuit in Louisiana where the US AG is actually contending that charter schools disrupt the character of (de facto segregated) public schools by allowing minority children to attend using vouchers.  Somehow, this is supposed to be violative of integration efforts?  Seriously?  The political calculus is such that the administration is so determined to go to bat for its teachers union supporters (and fearful of the success of vouchering programs) that it is willing to sacrifice the education of poor Black kids.

Even Holder's resignation has been timed to allow Obama to rush and steamroll his replacement during the lame duck session should the GOP win control of the Senate, as now seems possible.  Or maybe, the President will simply make another unconstitutional recess appointment.   When it comes to abuse of power, I wouldn't put anything past these guys.  Just look at how they've handled the IRS scandal and cover up.  If A Republican Treasury had ever held up progressive groups' filings for tax free status, you would have had a special prosecutor named so fast, it would have made our heads spin. 


Speaking of the Senate, I was getting pretty concerned that the GOP would be unable to pick up the 6 seats they need to take control, especially after the Kansas (of all places) race turned sour.  That's where the GOP candidate is an octogenarian incumbent (Roberts) and had both an independent and a Democrat opponent until the Dems succeeded in removing their hapless candidate from the ballot.  In a two way race, this will be close, and, showing real character and conviction, the independent candidate says he will caucus with whichever party is in the majority.  Some I know consider Roberts on the way to defeat, but I detect a swing in his direction, similar to what is going on in a number of the hotly contested races.  Things are looking better in Iowa, Colorado, Kentucky (all but done), and even New Hampshire where Scott Brown seems to have caught up to Shaheen in recent polls.   In Louisiana, they are headed for a run off where anything could happen since money will be pured in by both sides if that race actually determines the majority.  However, recent polls show Cassidy leading Landrieu in the prospective two way race.  In Georgia, Nunn has lost her mojo and there is some hope the GOP can win that one without a run off.  On the other hand Michigan's a goner, Minnesotans are going to hold their noses and vote for Franken again (why?), and there are several other races too close to call.  But my guess is that at worst, the GOP will emerge with 50 seats on election night to 48 for the Dems, with Louisiana and possibly Georgia headed to run offs.

There are a couple of interesting governor's races to watch.  In blue Illinois, it looks like the Dems are in real trouble, and in even bluer Massachusetts, the air is again going out of the Coakley balloon, which is always fun to watch.  If any candidate deserves to lose any race for any position anywhere, it's Martha.
We have written in this space many times about climate change and skepticism concerning the models purporting to prove that humans are warming the planet, and it's perhaps my least popular subject as far as readers are concerned.  So rather than continue to abuse your sensibilities on this subject, I will merely refer interested readers to an entertaining website I have discovered which covers the subject much better than I anyway: wattsupwiththat.com
We saw Billy Joel's monthly concert at MSG Friday night, and it was great fun.  The Garden is just an exciting venue, no matter its acoustical challenges.  Joel will continue to perform monthly as long as he is able and they continue to sell out.  November and December are already sold out, so it looks like a second year is in the offing.  You can get tickets on Stub Hub but it will cost.
One of the oldest market axioms is "Sell them on Rosh Ha Shana, and buy them back on Yom Kippur."  In fact that simple advice would have been very profitable for most shareholders this year, particularly if you started nibbling on Friday.  The market has been especially difficult on small company shareholders and gold bugs, and I've got significant holdings of both in the Redwave portfolio.  Luckily, I always take the long view, and see no reason for panic, though the Fed continues to do a stinky job and there's trouble all over the world, thanks to the incompetence of political leaders everywhere, not just here.  You've got to have your money somewhere, and though inflation seems low now, it's not as low as being reported (fracking and other energy sources are keeping energy input prices artificially low) and you can be sure that mattress money will be inflated away in the long run.  So we are really not making changes in the investment formula we have discussed here, and only minor changes to the buy./hold list.  We added Xylem (XYL) and Align Technology (ALGN), and will be fully subtracting BOLT thanks to a takeover offer.  Here are the transactions since our last post:

Date          Symbol        Shares       Price            Comments
8/13            PQ             400            5.69            Tulane portfolio stock
8/22           TAI             100           20.78       Running out of Preferreds, this is an income fund   
8/22           LNN            50            77.82       Irrigation and Water play
8/29           EXPD          50            41.39       Careful on this one, it's heyday may be over
8/29           TIP              20            115.24      Inflation will rise again
9/3             CNRD        100            38           Big winner from Tulane
9/4             XYL           100             37.89     Accumulating position
9/10           BK.PR.C     100            23.13
9/12           KN             100             30.62     Formula buys it back - too soon
9/15           ALGN         50              54.91      Dental is outside of ACA
9/16          WFC.PR.P  100             22.52     
9/26          GIFI             200            17.87       Tulane Portfolio
9/26          ALGN           50             52.97      Accumulating
9/26          GLD            20              117.02     Averaging down
9/29          MAN           50               70.98      Employment play Value Buy
9/30          XYL            100              36.18      Accumulating position
10/2          TAI              100             20.29
10/03         B                 100             30.04       Value Buy

Date          Symbol       Shares      Price        Date Purchased  Price       Comments       
8/13           HZO           200          17.51        11/10/08         1.54      Love them 11 timers
8/13           NEM          100          27.10        11/22/06         45.29   A judicious loss
                                                                        3/26/07         43.78
8/20           NVEC          50          69.27         12/2/09          37.50
8/22           TMO            25         121.49        1/13/03          19.88   6 timers are good too
8/26           ADM            50           49.50        8/3/12            25.48   Ethanol profits         
8/27           KN              100          33.59        3/11/14          28.02    Nice company, timely sale
9/2            LNN              50           77.69        3/5/01             20      Didn't I just buy this?  Formula quirk
9/5            KNX             100          25.73       1/10/00            3.33     Gains take time
9/8            AWCMY      400            5.88       3/22/10             6.05   Lightening up on aluminum 
                                                                      5/5/10               5.40
9/11          BYD             200            11.42      8/6/14               9.52
9/17         LOW              50             53.71      6/27/05            28.30  
9/19         HIG                100           38           6/13/11              26.44
                                                                       8/5/11                24.61
9/25        BOLT              400           21.9864   1/26/09              6.96       Takeover offer at 22
                                                                        6/1/10               8.62

Monday, August 18, 2014


RIP - Robin Williams

Losing Robin Williams seemed to have a significant impact on people even before the details surrounding his suicide became generally known. I think it is that way with exceptionally talented people who also are plagued with sometimes debilitating conditions. In Williams' case, his history of addiction was well known and he made no secret of its impact on both his professional and personal life.   This flaw served to humanize him even as we were in awe of his otherworldly gifts. It also made an impression when he was able, as an actor, to transcend pure comedy and bring other dimensions to his movie roles, especially in movies such as Garp, Good Morning Vietnam, and most brilliantly in Good Will Hunting.   It may be that he realized that he really did not have much left in the tank given his health issues, and that realization would have been hard for him to handle. Still, it would have been nice to have him stay around for a well deserved victory lap or two.

Obama and Kerry have done such a bad job trying to curtail the hostilities between Hamas and Israel that the US is now irrelevant. Any lasting peace deal is much more likely to be brokered by Egypt since neither of the warring parties trust this administration. Whatever happens, Israel must not prematurely end the mission but instead continue until Hamas is degraded as a fighting force and the rockets and tunnels are gone.  Whether that point has yet been reached is doubtful.

A good example of what happens when you stand down either due to lack of resolve, impatience, or political expediency is what's happening to us in Iraq.  Or Syria. Or Afghanistan. Or Ukraine. Etc, etc, etc.
Louisville, KY, which is where I am as this is written, is an interesting town to visit, though certainly not as great a venue for a business trip as Seattle or Austin. But there is fun to be had. Fourth St. downtown is something of a disappointment in that there is little in the way of live music worthy of attention  and the bar scene, like Trix, is strictly for kids. But there is the Muhammad Ali Museum, the bourbon trail tours, and Louisville Slugger Park, the beautiful home of the Louisville Bats, a Reds  AAA farm team. The weather has been fine and many would not know the city abuts the Ohio River We are within walking distance of the bridge over the Ohio that takes you to Indiana (in fact there is a pedestrian bridge to Indiana).

As for food, it's pretty easy to abuse your diet here as in much of the south, particularly in the pub restaurants. We did have three or four excellent meals here and the standouts were Corbett's, Eddie Merlot, and Dr. Crow's. Corbett's is a charming old house turned restaurant about 20 minutes from Downtown and the food and service are impeccable. Even the appetizers provided for our cocktail hour were so thoughtfully prepared.   Eddie Merlot features very good steak and seafood in a setting nice enough to feel like it is out of place at the edge of the raucous Downtown bar scene. Dr. Crow's is by the river and certainly has more of a pub feel, but it is known for its steak and oysters and despite its large size, the service was quite good there too.

All in all, Louisville was a good meeting site and I would look forward to returning.
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The Mets have had their August swoon again which means September's games are unlikely to be meaningful. Still progress was made on several fronts his season. It looks like they are set at catcher for the first time since the Piazza days, and Murphy is now well established as a first quality hitter and a passable second baseman. The young outfielders look promising and we'll see next year who is worthy of a commitment like the team made to Lucas Duda this year.  Most promising is the pitching where the team is stockpiled with young starters and relievers.   Since it looks like most teams will be going to a six man rotation over the next few years, there is really no such thing as too much pitching.

Less bracing is the continuing decline of David Wright, especially offensively.  He has always had difficulty with pitch recognition, but now his uppercut is so bad he can't hit the fast ball either. Since the Mets are committed financially to both him and Curtis Granderson (also in decline), this figures to be a serious drag on performance for some time. Of course the other obvious problem is that Manager Collins has got to go because of his in-game strategic incompetence. It's way past time to give Wally Backman an opportunity
Here are the recent stock trades. Keep in mind that this blog and it's author are not investment advisors so these are not intended as recommendations.


Date      Symbol   Shares    Price            Comments

7/2        AGCO    50          55.59      Value Buy
7/9        FNFG     300          8.78    Zero Buy
7/9        TIP          20         114.66    Inflation around the corner
7/14      KN         100          29.50    Spin offs are popular
7/17      FAST       50           45.25    Quality company under pressure
7/18     TAI          100          21         We'll watch this one for a while
7/21      MAIN     100          31.74     Value
7/22      GE          100           26.10     Immelt's Turnaround at last?
7/23   BK.PR.C   100           23.45    Don't forget income
7/29    B              100            35.66    An old favorite
7/31    RAVN      100            28.92    Down markets mean bargains
8/4      IAU          200            12.52   Gold
8/5     BRS            50             72.98
8/6     BYD          300              9.52   It's a gamble
8/11   WFC.PR.P  100           23.25   Soundest of the big banks
8/11    AGCO        50             49.15   Average down

Date    Symbol       Shares     Price       Date         Price  
                                                           Bought      Paid

7/2        GHM         100        34.74      3/3/11       20.96
7/3        SHLM       50          41.34      9/22/06     23.77
7/9        ADM         50          46          8/3/12        25.48
7/9        ENI            200        17.48     2/10           21.39   European utility - UGH
7/15      AA             200        16.14     9/28/11      10.50
                                                           11/25/11      8.90    It took patience
7/25      AWC.MY  400          5.74      2/25/10      5.31
                                                            3/22/10       6.05
7/31      NVEC         50         65.07     12/2/09      37.50

When the markets are down, we tend to do more buying.  This market is precarious, but as Cramer says, you have to stay in the game. The rally of the last few days vindicated the formula yet again.  

Sunday, July 13, 2014


Obama's numbers in free fall

This comes to you from Boston, MA., following a very busy period that has seen few if any posts, for which I apologize profusely.  It certainly hasn't been for lack of material.


The President's media friends are soft-pedaling it but Obama's numbers are in Bush 43 territory or worse.  But why shouldn't they be?  Is anything really going right with this Administration?  Even the better jobs numbers reflect part - time and low wage jobs, with little or no move by the long term unemployed to rejoin the work force.  But most of those have learned that they can make it without traditional jobs, living on unemployment, food stamps, subsidized or free health insurance and taking off the books assignments as they come.  The marginal benefit of having a regular full time job is not worth the downsides, so who can blame folks for making a perfectly rational choice.  But keep that in mind the next time you are asked whether you favor yet another extension of unemployment benefits.
As for increasing the minimum wage, I don't think that's a fix for much of anything.

Meanwhile, the Administration's failures are all too obvious. Its policies on the Mid-East, Russia and Ukraine, immigration, green energy and climate, etc. have all been shown to be fruitless at best, misguided at worst.  It has had no answer on the Benghazi and IRS scandals, where they appear more culpable by the day.  The Keystone pipeline project remains mired in progressive political hell, with Canada now fully prepared to sell its oil in Asia.   And recent Supreme Court decisions have indicated impeachable offenses in the areas of recess appointments and Agency discretion (notably, the EPA) where the Administration has ignored the rule of law and arguably violated its Constitutional responsibilities.

Not that the Republicans have any desire to start an impeachment round, having learned that it backfires when the President is a media darling, a la Bill Clinton.  Besides, the GOP has its own problems, failing to articulate a clear solution on immigration, and seeing its fracking allies tied to Oklahoma earthquake activity.  The GOP does look pretty good for the 2014 elections, but has yet to see a compelling candidate emerge for 2016.  I don't believe Senator Paul is a serious candidate, and if I had to guess, I would say the top two right now are Rep. Ryan and Gov. Kasich.  But it's very early for all that.

On a happier note, I did get to see Counting Crows in Central Park, and that is a great summer concert venue.  Crows have a new album in the works, to be released in early September.
The interminable easy money policy by the Fed has been criticized here before.  We think near zero interest rates have been doing more harm than good for some time.  Of course, we start from the premise that the dual mandate from Congress (minimize unemployment and keep the dollar stable) is a mistake to begin with, since we believe the Fed's job should be to keep the dollar stable.   In fact, the Fed has made matters much worse by targeting two per cent annual inflation as its definition of a stable dollar.  That is anything but since the dollar's value will be halved every 36 years at that inflation rate.  The Fed has now built that inflation expectation into the economy, and the statistics show that higher inflation is already occurring, though its effects are spotty so far.  But that's why I continue to buy gold and tips.

The WSJ printed an excerpt from an interview the Daily Princetonian recently conducted with former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker (who broke the back of the severe inflation of the 1970's).  Here are excerpts from the excerpts:

DP: Does high inflation matter as long as it's expected?
PV: It sure does,,,The responsibility of the government is to have a stable currency.  This kind of stuff that you're being taught at Princeton disturbs me.  Your teachers must be telling you that if you've got expected inflation, then everybody adjusts and then its OK.  Is that what they're telling you?  Where did the question come from?
DP: and to get back to the central banking a little bit, given the trade-off between inflation and unemployment-
PV: I don't believe that.  That's my answer to that question.  That is a scenario and a delusion, which economists have gotten Nobel Prizes twenty years ago to disprove.
So what did you think of the World Cup?  Clearly New Yorkers were heavily into it and I imagine it was pretty much the same around the country.  I guess lots of people will watch tomorrow's final between Germany and Argentina.  I kind of expect Germany to win.  By the way, this final is more or less a Jewish nightmare, since Nazi hunters generally had to track their targets down in, you guessed it, Argentina.
I hope you are watching 24, back to its old riveting self, thanks largely to a great, if somewhat familiar story line compressed into fewer episodes.  It should also be pointed out that the brilliance of William Devane as the President has carried the show this season.  Also, if somehow you missed True Detective,  HBO is rerunning the series and I believe for binge watchers, all six episodes are available on demand.
Back home after a very pleasant three days in Boston, where the weather was great and there were lots of can't miss food options.  But still did not get to Fenway.  Next time, maybe.
One reliable way for me to attract critical comments is to go off on my rant about the climate control freaks, who are panicked because scientists' models show that man's productive efforts are changing the climate (presumably for the worse?).  My objection is that the models do not nearly replicate actual earth conditions so in the absence of direct evidence and controlled experiments, no one can really say whether these theories are correct or not.  That the earth has been in a warming trend for a century or so is not in dispute (though it appears that trend has not continued for the last decade or so), only its cause.  That more and more articles get published supporting my skeptical position just feeds my obsession (and drives the true believers nuts).

So naturally it warmed the cockels of my heart ("who needs hot cockels" - Woody Allen) to read Confessions of a Computer Modeler by Robert J. Caprara in a recent WSJ op ed section.  Here are some excerpts:
After earning a master's degree in environmental engineering in 1982...my first job was as a consultant to the EPA.  I was hired to build a model to assess the impact of its Construction Grants Program...The computer model was huge - it analyzed every river, sewer treatment plant and drinking water intake in the country...The model showed huge gains from the program (in) water quality...By the late 1980's, however, any gains from upgrading sewer treatments would be offset by the additional pollution load coming from people who moved from on-site septic tanks to public sewers, which dump the waste into rivers.  Basically, the model said we had hit the point of diminishing returns. 
When I presented the results to the EPA official...he said that I should go back and sharpen my pencil.  I tweaked coefficients and recalibrated data.  But when I reran everything the numbers didn't change much.  He told me to run the numbers again.  After three iterations I finally blurted out, "What number are you looking for?"  He didn't miss a beat; he told me that he needed to show $2 billion of benefits to get the program renewed.  I finally turned enough knobs to get the answer he wanted and everyone was happy. 
I...assume he understood the inherent inaccuracies of these types of models.  There are no exact values for the coefficients in models such as these.  There are only ranges of potential values.  By moving a bunch of these parameters to one side or the other you can usually get very different results, often in line with your initial beliefs.  Surely the scientific community wouldn't succomb to these pressures like us money - grabbing consultants.  Aren't they laboring for knowledge instead of profit?  If you believe that, boy do I have a computer model to sell you.
The academic community competes for grants, tenure and recognition; consultants compete for clients.  And...many professors moonlight as consultants, authors, talking heads, etc.  I am not saying this is a bad thing.  The legal system is adversarial and for the most part functions well.  The same is true for science.  So here is my advice:  Those who are convinced that humans are drastically changing the climate for the worse and those who aren't should accept and welcome a vibrant, robust back-and -forth.
Those who do believe that humans are driving climate change retort that the science is "settled" and those who don't agree are "deniers" and "flat-earthers."  Even the president mocks anyone who disagrees.  One thing I have learned is how hard it is to convince people with a computer model.  This does not mean people are dumb.  They usually have great BS detectors, and when they see one side of a debate trying to shut down the other side, they will most likely assume it has something to hide, has the weaker argument, or both.
The market has stopped its steady grind upward for now and the mood is pretty cautious.  Our formula has called for a lot of sales.  

Date    Symbol     Shares     Price     Comments

5/21      TAI           100       20.97      Rare fund purchase
5/21      NWBI       200      13.20       Value Buy
5/23      BYD         200       10.62        Zero Buy
5/28      IAU          200        12.23       Gold ETF
6/4        GIFI         200        18.48       Value - Tulane Portfolio
6/13      NVEC       50         51.15       Zero Buy
6/16      BK.PR.C  100        22.81      Preferred
6/20      GNE         300          7.30      Value Buy
6/24      ONCS      3400        0.60      Zero buy - our lotto ticket
6/26      WFC.PR.P 100       23.73

Sales                                                   Date Bought      Price

5/23      AWCMY   200         5.36          2/11/10         5.85
5/23      AWCMY   200         5.36          2/25/10         5.31
5/27      AA             100        13.52        12/9/08          9.46
5/27      AA             100        13.52        9/28/11          10.50
5/28      HON           50         92.28        9/16/11          46.99
5/28      KNX          100        23.82        1/10/00            3.33       Love them 7 timers
6/2        ECL             25        109.12       8/25/05          32.10 
6/4       AVSR         6600       0.0035      2005-2007    Lost 11,000 - You have to clean out the dogs
6/5         TFX            25        107.56       6/16/06          51.20
6/9        USAK         200        18.60        8/24/12           3.74
6/10       PCP             10       272.95       10/6/08            69   Quads require patience
6/13       PQ              400         6.43        11/22/04           4.46       Tulane portfolio
6/18       HUB.A         25      121.40        12/22/00          23.56
6/19       GENC         100       10.89         2/2/09              8.17
6/19       GENC         100       10.89         2/23/09            6.15      
6/23       GIFI            100       21.61         3/16/09            7.04   Tulane portfolio
6/26       SLB              25      114.87         5/12/05           34.05  SLB is best of breed
6/30       PQ               300         7.50         4/10/12            5.80  Tulane portfolio


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