Monday, April 18, 2016
Tomorrow is Primary day in NY
And we will be voting for John Kasich. Or at least I will. My wife and I agreed from the beginning to register in different parties so we would have one vote in each primary, and she has the misfortune to be stuck in the Dems primary, with no one she wants to vote for. Maybe this was a mistake. We could have used another vote for John. The polls show John second but well behind the Donald. I wonder how accurate these polls will prove to be. If you cold call a voter, ask him which primary he is voting in and he says Republican and he's voting for Trump, does the pollster do anything to be certain this voter will be eligible to vote in the R primary? Unlike too many states, you have to be registered in the party to actually vote in the NY primary. And you can't just change your registration tomorrow. You have to have done it by last October 15. So I wonder how many of these Trump voters, who are really registered D's and Ind's will be turned away at the polls or forced to "feel the Bern." Trump is likely to indeed win, but maybe not by nearly the margin pollsters expect.
This is the way primaries should be, if a state must have one at all. My view is that the Trump squawking about "the voters should decide, not the insiders" is 180 degrees wrong. Parties are private associations. They make their own rules and offer candidates for election. They should want to pick a candidate who can win, because that means policies and political appointments friendly to the party. Delegates after the first ballot will be largely free to pick such a candidate, and right now, the polls indicate that of those running, Kasich is the only Republican who could win.
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A couple of columns worthy of note in today's WSJ op ed section. First, read Mark Helprin's essay called "The Candidates Ignore Rising Military Dangers." Now, I will stipulate that Helprin has been writing alarming hyperbole for the Journal on military matters for a long time, but that doesn't mean he's wrong. The degradation of our military capability while nuclear weapons proliferate and Russia, China, Iran and North Korea increase their capabilities and encroach on their neighbors should give one pause. Helprin's essay lists in impressive detail where we have gone wrong over the last two administrations and what needs to happen to resume our leadership position.
A second essay by Stuart Taylor Jr. entitled "A Hollywood Hit-Job on Clarence Thomas" reviewed the currently playing HBO movie "Confirmation." The movie presents a depiction of the Thomas confirmation hearings, especially the explosive exchange between him and harassment accuser Anita Hill. The essay details the evidence that her testimony was mainly false, and takes the movie to task for taking her side in the "She said, He said" controversy.
It's no wonder that young people are feeling the Bern, given the propaganda they are subjected to throughout school, particularly at the college level and by Hollywood. To me, it is just as bad that Sanders is still a viable candidate as it is that Trump is. The former is a Communist, the latter a storm trooper. Both represent the worst of 20th century demagogues and tyrants, and use the same tactic of scapegoating, whether it be immigrants, banks, businessmen or their rival politicians. Neither should have anything like the following they have in this country.
I find the developments depicted in these two essays very troubling when I consider the future of our country and the world that our kids and grandkids will be dealing with. In the end, it's theirs to make the best of it, and if they won't listen to those who really understand what our Constitution and way of life is about, they will be much at fault. But the liberal tendencies of baby boomers have surely paved the way.
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Our portfolio finished the quarter up a couple of percentage points year-to-date, and given how the year started, that's pretty remarkable. I do think this will be another challenging year for investors. By the way, if you had capital gains as we did again last year, the tax bite from Obamacare and all the other anti - investor features of our code are now biting at full force. It's enough to make me consider taking some offsetting losses next fall. We'll see. In the meantime, here are the investment transactions for the first quarter. The final Fiduciary Rule seems to leave unpaid commentators like me outside the conflict of interest provisions so we can continue to list the transactions, with the reminder that they are just that, a list and not recommendations. They may not be suitable investments for anyone else.
Purchases
Date Symbol Shares Price Comments
1/5 ONCS 900 2.44
1/6 TIP 20 110.12
1/7 BRS 100 22.11 Not giving up on Tulane portfolio
1/11 GBT 100 23.89 New name run by Haverford alum
1/13 GLD 20 103.89
1/14 OPK 250 8.30 On the bargain counter
1/14 ONCS 1300 1.55 Catching a falling knife?
1/20 JPM.PR.A 100 25
1/21 MU 200 10.44
1/22 GBT 150 19.78
1/25 GGP.PR.A 100 24.70 Another new name
1/27 SF 100 32.26
1/28 AA 300 7.18 Aluminum bottoming?
2/2 TIP 20 111.48
2/3 OPK 300 7.756
2/4 GBT 150 19.37 Averaging down
2/8 JPM.PR.A 100 25
2/10 BRS 200 14.51
2/12 DVN 200 20.57 Oil and gas not going away yet
2/16 PRH 100 25.47
2/18 NR 600 3.84 Go Tulane!
2/18 GBT 150 17.56 averaging down
2/19 GLD 20 117.1775
2/22 KN 400 11.50
2/23 HSC 400 6.29
2/23 JPM.PR.A 100 24.98
2/29 NR 600 3.67
3/1 GBT 150 15.08 averaging down
3/10 TIP 20 112.55
3/17 GNE 300 7.78 Israeli oil on St Pats Day
3/24 GBT 200 14.85 Averaging Down
3/24 JPM.PR.A 100 25.21
3/28 SF 100 29.15
3/29 HSC 400 5.22
3/31 GLD 20 118.08
Sales
Date Symbol Shares Price Date Purchased Price Comments
1/4 ENI 1600 11.63 Various 16.99 Off the Buy/Hold list; give up
1/29 PCP 100 234.90 10/6/08 69 Buffet bought the company
3/3 NEM 100 26.29 2012-13 48.97
3/4 GENC 200 13.67 2009 6.40
3/7 XEL 100 39.89 10/2/13 27.71
3/8 AWCMY 500 3.97 2010 4.95
3/17 NEM 100 27.86 2013 38.63 We'll get even on this one
3/18 HON 25 111.56 10/27/10 46.59
3/18 ITW 25 100.41 9/15/06 44.50
3/21 NEM 100 27.63 2013 30.12
3/22 HZO 200 19.48 2010-11 7.38
3/30 TFX 15 159.03 4/26/04 49.84
This is the way primaries should be, if a state must have one at all. My view is that the Trump squawking about "the voters should decide, not the insiders" is 180 degrees wrong. Parties are private associations. They make their own rules and offer candidates for election. They should want to pick a candidate who can win, because that means policies and political appointments friendly to the party. Delegates after the first ballot will be largely free to pick such a candidate, and right now, the polls indicate that of those running, Kasich is the only Republican who could win.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A couple of columns worthy of note in today's WSJ op ed section. First, read Mark Helprin's essay called "The Candidates Ignore Rising Military Dangers." Now, I will stipulate that Helprin has been writing alarming hyperbole for the Journal on military matters for a long time, but that doesn't mean he's wrong. The degradation of our military capability while nuclear weapons proliferate and Russia, China, Iran and North Korea increase their capabilities and encroach on their neighbors should give one pause. Helprin's essay lists in impressive detail where we have gone wrong over the last two administrations and what needs to happen to resume our leadership position.
A second essay by Stuart Taylor Jr. entitled "A Hollywood Hit-Job on Clarence Thomas" reviewed the currently playing HBO movie "Confirmation." The movie presents a depiction of the Thomas confirmation hearings, especially the explosive exchange between him and harassment accuser Anita Hill. The essay details the evidence that her testimony was mainly false, and takes the movie to task for taking her side in the "She said, He said" controversy.
It's no wonder that young people are feeling the Bern, given the propaganda they are subjected to throughout school, particularly at the college level and by Hollywood. To me, it is just as bad that Sanders is still a viable candidate as it is that Trump is. The former is a Communist, the latter a storm trooper. Both represent the worst of 20th century demagogues and tyrants, and use the same tactic of scapegoating, whether it be immigrants, banks, businessmen or their rival politicians. Neither should have anything like the following they have in this country.
I find the developments depicted in these two essays very troubling when I consider the future of our country and the world that our kids and grandkids will be dealing with. In the end, it's theirs to make the best of it, and if they won't listen to those who really understand what our Constitution and way of life is about, they will be much at fault. But the liberal tendencies of baby boomers have surely paved the way.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Our portfolio finished the quarter up a couple of percentage points year-to-date, and given how the year started, that's pretty remarkable. I do think this will be another challenging year for investors. By the way, if you had capital gains as we did again last year, the tax bite from Obamacare and all the other anti - investor features of our code are now biting at full force. It's enough to make me consider taking some offsetting losses next fall. We'll see. In the meantime, here are the investment transactions for the first quarter. The final Fiduciary Rule seems to leave unpaid commentators like me outside the conflict of interest provisions so we can continue to list the transactions, with the reminder that they are just that, a list and not recommendations. They may not be suitable investments for anyone else.
Purchases
Date Symbol Shares Price Comments
1/5 ONCS 900 2.44
1/6 TIP 20 110.12
1/7 BRS 100 22.11 Not giving up on Tulane portfolio
1/11 GBT 100 23.89 New name run by Haverford alum
1/13 GLD 20 103.89
1/14 OPK 250 8.30 On the bargain counter
1/14 ONCS 1300 1.55 Catching a falling knife?
1/20 JPM.PR.A 100 25
1/21 MU 200 10.44
1/22 GBT 150 19.78
1/25 GGP.PR.A 100 24.70 Another new name
1/27 SF 100 32.26
1/28 AA 300 7.18 Aluminum bottoming?
2/2 TIP 20 111.48
2/3 OPK 300 7.756
2/4 GBT 150 19.37 Averaging down
2/8 JPM.PR.A 100 25
2/10 BRS 200 14.51
2/12 DVN 200 20.57 Oil and gas not going away yet
2/16 PRH 100 25.47
2/18 NR 600 3.84 Go Tulane!
2/18 GBT 150 17.56 averaging down
2/19 GLD 20 117.1775
2/22 KN 400 11.50
2/23 HSC 400 6.29
2/23 JPM.PR.A 100 24.98
2/29 NR 600 3.67
3/1 GBT 150 15.08 averaging down
3/10 TIP 20 112.55
3/17 GNE 300 7.78 Israeli oil on St Pats Day
3/24 GBT 200 14.85 Averaging Down
3/24 JPM.PR.A 100 25.21
3/28 SF 100 29.15
3/29 HSC 400 5.22
3/31 GLD 20 118.08
Sales
Date Symbol Shares Price Date Purchased Price Comments
1/4 ENI 1600 11.63 Various 16.99 Off the Buy/Hold list; give up
1/29 PCP 100 234.90 10/6/08 69 Buffet bought the company
3/3 NEM 100 26.29 2012-13 48.97
3/4 GENC 200 13.67 2009 6.40
3/7 XEL 100 39.89 10/2/13 27.71
3/8 AWCMY 500 3.97 2010 4.95
3/17 NEM 100 27.86 2013 38.63 We'll get even on this one
3/18 HON 25 111.56 10/27/10 46.59
3/18 ITW 25 100.41 9/15/06 44.50
3/21 NEM 100 27.63 2013 30.12
3/22 HZO 200 19.48 2010-11 7.38
3/30 TFX 15 159.03 4/26/04 49.84
